nba playoffs picks

Western Conference
Lakers in 5
Nuggets in 6 (updated after Okur is out for the year and Kirilenko is out for that series)
Spurs in 5. Mostly because the Mavs refuse to start Haywood.
Suns in 5

Second Round
Lakers in 5. I don't think Denver is a good matchup there. A healthy Jazz team would probably win this series.
Suns in 7. I don't think the Spurs have it for this matchup. They may be the only team well setup to handle LA out West though (now that Utah...and Portland are too banged up). Mavs could probably do it if they fixed their rotation, but they'll have to beat both San Antonio and Phoenix to even get that far.

West Finals
Lakers in 6. Suns aren't that good really, but they can score in bunches

East (is pretty dull)
Cavs in 4
Celts in 7. KG suspension probably pushes this one out to 7, though it may have been anyway.
Magic in 4
Hawks in 4

Second Round
Cavs in 5
Magic in 5

East Finals
Cavs in 7. I can't bet on a team with Vince Carter on it to make the Finals, but I don't see this one getting settled quickly either.

Finals
Cavs in 6.
1) Both LA and Cleveland are not quite as good as last year.
2) Orlando is technically "better" than both teams, but I don't think they matchup as well as they did last year with Cleveland with Carter instead of Turkoglu.
3) Shaq doesn't help the Cavs with anybody other than LA and Orlando. They almost may as well give him the first two rounds off.
4) Jackson is a much superior coach to Brown. It's possible this may swing the series.
5) LeBron is much better than Kobe though. It's possible this may swing the series back.
6) Cleveland has nobody to matchup with Odom. LA doesn't really have an answer to Bad Andy though (still not sold on Gasol being tough enough).
7) Both teams have weak PG play. Orlando of this year could probably win this series in 5 (Jameer is pretty solid, especially relative to a washed up Derek Fisher).
8) If the Cavs match-up with about anybody else out West I think they win in 5. Maybe the Spurs could take it 7.
9) Lakers won't be playing anybody they can beat. Orlando and Cleveland should be the only options for winning the East.