16 February 2011

NCAA ratings

1) OSU
2) Duke
2) Kansas

4) Texas
5) Pitt
6) BYU

A bit of separation at the top finally, but not much.

7) Purdue
8) San Diego St
8) Wisconsin

10) Kentucky
11) Washington
12) Georgetown
13) North Carolina
14) Villanova

15) Arizona
16) Syracuse
17) Notre Dame
18) Illinois

19) Louisville
20) Connecticut
21) Vanderbilt
22) St Marys
22) West Virginia
22) George Mason
25) Missouri

26) Belmont (still being very sneaky)
27) Maryland, also being very sneaky. By losing many games.

Overall, it looks like the SEC is very overrated by the RPI (other than Kentucky, which is underrated), along with Conference USA. The ACC (with the exception of Boston College), and to some extent the Big Ten is underrated. Pac 10 is always underrated by this stupid ratings system.

Teams that are overrated by the ESPN-RPI crowd: Boston College, Georgia, Memphis, Baylor, Tennessee, Texas AM, Princeton, Colorado St

Teams that are on the bracket now: Michigan St, Xavier, Gonzaga.
Teams that dropped out of contention: Northwestern, Boston College.

Bubble looks something like this:
Xavier, Michigan St, UCLA, Gonzaga, New Mexico, Washington St, Butler/Cleveland St IN. ODU, Alabama, Richmond, Michigan, Baylor, Nebraska, Colorado, Georgia, UAB/UTEP OUT. Northwestern, Boston College, Colorado St, Missouri St, Southern Miss, Memphis way out. The bubble as a whole looks pretty soft. I really wish they hadn't expanded the field. At least 10 teams at this rate are going to get at-large bids that are middling at best.

A lot of conference USA types are decent teams, should get a decent seeding if they get in by winning the conference, but are mediocre enough that they should escape notice if they don't get a bid. The only mid-majors or minor conferences teams that should get in regardless are St Marys, George Mason, Utah St, Wichita St and Belmont, with Temple and Xavier from the A10. Duquesne is a lock on my list, but not on anyone else's (usually Richmond instead). Wichita St hasn't actually beaten anyone however, same with Belmont (two close losses to Tennessee on the road) so they're both at risk. The Mountain West is much better than the SEC and pretty close to the Pac 10 on my list and it is not a "mid major" conference if there are 5 teams in the discussion, and 3 of them as locks, and two of those up for favorable home court first round games. That looks a lot more like say the Big 12 than the Missouri Valley or even the Atlantic 10.
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