ncaa-champ week edition

I managed to glance at the RPI and the actual rankings this week. Those were good for a laugh

1) Kansas
2) Duke
3) Syracuse
(These are the only teams I think have a shot at the title, in that order. BYU fits the criteria of uptempo team that blows people out, but only against much inferior competition).
4) Wisconsin
5) BYU
(Probably will get knocked off sooner because they will be underseeded and have to play somebody tougher earlier. RPI hates these two. They're not quite the most undervalued by RPI and pollsters, but it's pretty close because of how highly they rate on MOV and efficiency type ratings).
6) West Virginia
7) Ohio State (RPI hates them too. Turner's injury and Lauer's on Wisconsin's should play into their seeding)
8) Kentucky
9) Purdue
9) Kansas State
(I call this the hit or miss mix. Purdue's injuries, Kentucky's road woes and K State's weak resume aren't too helpful).
11) Maryland
12) Texas
13) Villanova
14) Baylor
(somebody is going to be very sad if they get Maryland as a lower seed draw in the second round, which they will because RPI and the bracketology folks who work based on that RPI rank have them as no better than a 5 or even 6 usually. Nova is also tricky. Texas isn't playing well. But I still wouldn't want to play them early either).
15) Missouri
16) California
17) Georgetown
18) Clemson
19) Xavier
20) Michigan State
(Cal should be in no problem, but they only have Murray St as a good win outside of their conference. I'm also not sure I buy that the Pac 10 is THAT far down. They're 8th in the RPI? You do realize that the A10 has Fordham at the glorious record of 2-26 in it?. Washington State as the last place Pac10 team is still 16-14 overall. There's probably 5-6 teams in the A10 that would struggle to win a single game in the Pac10. Sorry can't take that as a better conference just because of Temple, Xavier and Richmond. The ACC also not being #1 or #2 is hard to take seriously. Again, no easy outs. The Big East at least has Rutgers and DePaul to beat up on.)

Here's the profile on the bids so far that might matter. Winthrop and ETSU, thanks for playing but you will be cannon fodder.
N. Iowa I have #39. They have an 9-1 record versus the top 100 and will probably get a more favorable seed than a 10 (New Mexico is the only team more overrated by RPI). Possibly a sweet 16 team but nothing more than that, depends on the draw.
Murray St I have #47. The commentators for their game had them pegged as a 13 seed. RPI has them as a possible 11 or 12, depending on who doesn't make the cut ahead of them (teams like Connecticut and Seton Hall for example). They may be a good setup for a 5-12 upset or even a 4-13 if they get hosed on the draw, but they haven't played many good teams so it's hard to tell (1-3 versus top 100, with a close loss to Cal on the road the first game of the year). Their conference mostly sucked royally, as it often does.
Cornell I have #59. Not much hope for an Ivy league team win this year actually.

Bubble teams:
Washington is my highest rated team that isn't in right now (28). I'm only sort of in agreement that they shouldn't be in. They're terrible on the road and haven't beaten anybody of significance (Cal, Texas AM, Arizona St, and then...Wright St by 5?). They did play a decent out of conference slate, but it's still mostly cannon fodder outside of the top 100 or very nearly so (Belmont, Montana, Portland etc). Lost to Georgetown.

Minnesota is the most shafted RPI team (78 on RPI, 36 on my list, Marquette is the next team on that list and it's not even close). They've lost a bunch of close games (5 games by one point or OT), and mostly blew people out in their wins. That Michigan blowout loss will probably sink them, even though it probably shouldn't have (Michigan is also heavily underrated by RPI). The OT loss at Indiana is in my opinion the killer. Beat Butler out of conference. And that's it. Lost to two of Washington's out of conference wins (Texas AM and Portland).

Arizona State (39). Probably will get in now, unless they lose early in their tournament. Has only beaten San Diego State. Lost to Duke, BYU and Baylor and got swept by California though. Probably shouldn't be in in my opinion, but the bubble is just that weak this year. RPI doesn't like them too much, but they're still in "reasonable" territory unlike Minnesota. Not sure why they're favored to get in over Washington by Lunardi and others.

Memphis (45). Lost by 2 to Kansas, got crushed by Syracuse and played absolutely nobody else all year. Season sweep over UAB is their best win all year. May get in as a result, mostly to spite the Pac 10 or the SEC it would appear. I think they should have to win the auto-bid.

Connecticut (46). Best test team for the things the committee often says it wants. Played the one of the best schedules in the country and definitely the best out of conference slate among meaningful teams (nobody cares about Arkansas Pine Bluff). Isn't on the bubble discussion at all after finishing 12th in the Big East. Lost to Duke, Kentucky, but beat Texas, Villanova (on the road) and West Virginia. Michigan may be killing two decent teams at large chances here by beating Connecticut and Minnesota. So if they lose to St Johns (a road game basically) they're done, and most experts won't have them in unless they get to the Big East final at least. I think they should be in and that nobody would want to draw them in the first round as a 10-11-12 seed.

Dayton (50). Played their way out by getting swept by St. Louis and losing every meaningful game they played in the last 8 (Charlotte did the same thing so much so that Dayton's blowout over them is no longer a "meaningful game"). Did lose to Nova New Mexico, and Kansas State and did beat Georgia Tech and Old Dominion. Would have been in if the tournament was in early February, easily (especially after crushing Xavier at home). No luck now.

Mississippi (48). Probably should be in, but probably won't be. Beat Kansas St, lost to Villanova and West Virginia. Got swept by Mississippi State. Should have picked up Admiral Ackbar sooner.
Mississippi St (53). I wouldn't have them in right now, but they did beat Old Dominion, almost beat Kentucky (refs blew that game), swept their instate rivals for the bubble crown and again has the all important Wright State win out of conference (amazingly, Wright State is around Kent State as a 13-14 seed quality if they were to get in. Even if you could throw out the auto-bids from mediocre conferences they'd probably have a shot to get in. This is probably very surprising for Ohioans).

Florida (52) Seems like they're getting in. Not sure that they should be. Lost to SOUTH ALABAMA. Yes. South. Late season loss at home to Xavier didn't help them (would have been a quality win they could use). Did beat Florida State and Michigan State. NC State in OT doesn't impress too much. Also lost to Richmond and Syracuse.

Rhode Island (NR). I took them off my sheet a few weeks ago after the loss to St Louis. They have done nothing since to convince to put them back on. Losing to Massachusetts and St Bonaventure has finally convinced other people to take them off the bracket. Did beat Oklahoma State and a couple other decent wins out of conference. Lost to VCU and a 1 point win in Dayton is the only good win in conference for them. Should not even be in the discussion. I hate RPI.

San Diego State (49). Lost to Wyoming? Did beat New Mexico and lost to them in OT on the road. Also split with UNLV. Swept by BYU. Got crushed by St Mary's and crushed Arizona is all they did out of conference (also lost to Pacific). Another team that doesn't deserve to get in and might thanks to the wonderful RPI formula.
Notre Dame (50). Probably will get in. Probably should thanks to the 4 crucial wins down the stretch against top tier Big East teams (plus an earlier win over West Virginia). Probably will lose immediately. Lost to Rutgers and Loyola Marymount? Did nothing out of conference (lost to Northwestern too).

Illinois (NR). I have them dropped off the list after the losses down the stretch. They'd be in between Siena and Cornell, which is not good enough for an at-large bid. They do have a better profile of wins than all of the above bubbles. Beat Clemson (road), Vandy, Michigan State and Wisconsin (road). But those losses to Bradley and Utah are not pretty. Georgia isn't helping either. Took Gonzaga to OT, in Chicago (but was losing that game by 20, same with the Clemson win). Mostly beat up the lower tier Big Ten as they got swept by Purdue and Ohio State and split with Michigan State and Wisconsin. They're still in on the "national bracket", relatively comfortably (as an 11). This is a testimony to the weakness of the bubble.

Teams that people keep talking about as "on the bubble" or "playing for their tournament hopes/lives" that they should shut the hell up about: Louisville. California. Old Dominion (if they don't win tonight). All are comfortably on the bracket, have solid RPIs and solid profiles (Louisville and Cal's are sort of odd...but still).