14 February 2010

trade bait

Don't expect, barring a trade, that the Lakers are going to repeat now. Dallas now has a lineup that looks like this
C Haywood +4.5
PF Dirk +14
SF Marion +5.5
SG Butler +4.2
PG Kidd +2.3
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G Terry +1.6
G Beaubois +1.9
C Dampier +2.9
Basically big enough up front now (plus Butler is bigger and better than Josh Howard) and with some quick guards off the bench to chew up Fisher/Brown/etc. Question will be chemistry, but between Marion, Haywood, and Butler they upgraded their D considerably, and Butler's a better 2nd option scorer than Marion or Howard was.
Lakers look like this
C Bynum +3.3
PF Gasol +8.5
SF Artest +4.0
SG Kobe +15.7
PG Fisher -2.9
F Odom +2.6
G Farmar -2.0
G Brown -5.4
Bench is weak other than Odom, and Fisher/Brown/Farmar is probably the best possible matchup for Kidd to play against as it doesn't expose him the way Chris Paul or Deron Williams or Nash would.
This would be my current idea of the West come playoff time.
1) LA
2) Dallas
3) Denver (needs to get healthy to hold off Utah)
4) Utah
5) Spurs (getting healthy, but old too)
6) Oklahoma (too young, but scary)
7) Houston (depends on what they get for McGrady, could move up. Probably won't)
8) Portland (too many injuries, may not be able to hold off Memphis or Nash and his team of scrubs)
Seems like Phoenix is deciding to throw in the towel for financial reasons, and New Orleans probably will fade the longer Paul is out. Not sure what to make of Memphis, other than that they're not very deep and don't defend as well as these other teams.
East looks pretty irrelevant other than the top 4, in this order
1) Cavs
2) Orlando
3) Atlanta
4) Boston

Charlotte might be sort of wacky/scary depending on the matchup. Nobody else out East is scary at all (those Toronto fans who think they're threatening Boston at all for that division, probably need to shut it, you have the worst defensive team in the league, they still have the best. End of story).

I'm less convinced that the Stoudemire deal to Cleveland will help them out as much as it would appear. Mostly because Amare does not even try to play defense. But he is better, at least at this point, than JJ Hickson. He's not as good, certainly defensively, as Varejao (who is probably one of the top 5 interior defenders in the league). Assuming he'll get Hickson and Ilgauskas's minutes, with Bad Andy getting some of those as well, that's a good move, but not a slam dunk move that will put them over LA or Dallas. Probably should be able to handle Denver and everybody else in the East. The key for the Cavs will be whether Delonte West can stay on the court I think, rather than Anthony Parker and to a lesser extent, Mo Williams. West is a far superior defender at the point they need one the most, outside, than either of those two. Other than LeBron and Varejao, they've got a collection of average role players. That makes for a pretty good team (considering LeBron's a beast). But I'm not convinced after last year's playoff implosion that it gets them past whoever comes out of the West (they can probably beat Denver, if that's any consolation).

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