01 February 2014

NCAA ranks

(as always, this is a composite ranking, it's not that complicated to do, and the records are top 100 only for wins, with losses outside the top 100 listed separately).


1)Arizona12-0

2) Duke

9-4
3) Iowa5-5
4) Creighton11-3
5) Michigan St11-2
6) Kansas11-4

7) Louisville

3-4
8) Oklahoma St 9-4
9) Syracuse11-0
10) Michigan8-3-1
11) Pittsburgh8-3
12) Villanova11-2
13) Wichita St5-0
14) Florida8-2
15) UCLA6-4
16) Wisconsin10-3-1
17) Ohio St8-5

18) Kentucky

6-5
19) Virginia8-5
20) Iowa St8-4
21) Cincinnati6-2

22) Gonzaga

6-3
23) Arizona St6-5
24) Connecticut7-3-1
25) Saint Louis3-2

Notes:
Virginia is the highest listed team that's unranked. Probably because they're a very slow, boring team.

There's a huge glob of teams clustered together. After Arizona, it's actually a tight group over the next 20. This does not bode well for predicting the field later in the year as there aren't any dominating teams to run with into the deeper rounds who have separated from the pack. Other than Arizona, which has a very good defence, #2 right now after St Louis, and a good offence, nobody stands out. Duke and Creighton both have very good offenses and mediocre defenses, in the way that Michigan did last year (and also this year). Otherwise, the field is fairly balanced and not overwhelming. 

The gap after the top 20 or so isn't very high at all either. Teams are migrating on and off my bubble watch as teams to even keep track of with regularity still. North Carolina was toast a couple weeks ago. They're now a top 40 team. This means there's a very soft bubble rather than a hard "these teams should be in" so as many as 10-15 teams will be sweating on Selection Sunday.

A further note is that there's a grouping of sub-100 teams in the minor conferences that could be likely upset specials (Harvard, Green Bay, Delaware, Toledo, Stephen Austin, UCSB, North Dakota, and Manhattan, plus Belmont and a couple others that are lurking around the top 100 that might drop down as they beat up on their conferences and other teams drop down). These are teams that will have to win their conferences/tournaments to get in but they won't be easy outs if they do.

Ranked Teams outside my top 25. 
26) San Diego St 7-1 (#5 in the polls)
34) Massachusetts 8-3 (loss this week should drop them out)
29) Memphis 3-4
32) Oklahoma 8-4
43) Texas 7-4

Quick NBA note
I assuming Indiana is signing Bynum because they want to screw the Heat. Based on how he was playing earlier in the year, he can't be useful (for them, Miami could potentially use him if Oden doesn't pan out). This could hurt them later though as they could use the slot/cash for someone else in a trade perhaps. Depends some on what they can do with Granger, who hasn't played well. The team that would scare me if I am Indiana right now isn't Miami, it's Oklahoma City with Durant and a healthy Westbrook. 


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