19 February 2014

NCAA ranks mid February 14


1)Arizona13-2
2)Creighton12-4
3)Duke10-5
4)Louisville3-4
5)Iowa8-6
6)Florida11-2
7)Kansas13-6
8)Villanova11-3
9)Wisconsin14-4-1
10)Ohio St14-6
11)Syracuse15-0
12)Virginia10-5
13)Michigan St12-5
14)Wichita St9-0
15)UCLA8-5
16)Michigan10-6-1
17)Kentucky8-6
18)Pittsburgh8-6
19)Connecticut7-4-1
20)Oklahoma St7-10
21)Iowa St11-5
22)Gonzaga6-4
23)North Carolina10-5-2
24)Cincinnati7-3
25)SMU4-4-2

Arizona is still holding up at the top. Though they will start falling back more with the Ashley injury. Without them at the top, there will be a very muddy title shot pick. Kansas right now would be my favorite to win it, mostly because they should have the top 2 picks in the next draft class. But I wouldn't feel very solid about it. Followed by Florida and Arizona. 

Creighton keeps blitzing Villanova to get a huge boost in the computer ranks. I don't think they're #2, but they're in that next cluster. 

Louisville must not have played any of the better teams in that conference (UC, SMU, Memphis, Connecticut), because they just do not have a tough schedule. 

Highest unranked team is Pitt, followed by Oklahoma St (which has lost 7 in a row now). 

Ranked teams
31) San Diego St 6-2
27) Saint Louis 6-2
29) Texas 11-6
32) Memphis 4-6

Early bubble thoughts. 
There's a thick mixture of teams around 20-50 that are not that far apart. Some of those are very safe (Iowa St, Cincinnati, North Carolina), some need only to right the ship (Oklahoma St), and others are most likely out of the field in a few weeks (Arkansas, BYU, Florida St). The bubble itself looks like a total of 5 spots for about 20 teams. Of these, Baylor, West Virginia, and Oklahoma St could all get in as they have many opportunities to play their way in, and St John's looks to be playing well. Most everybody else, your guess is as good as mine. What this does say is that I continue to think two things
1) There's no reason to expand the field further to ensure competitive teams get in. Most of the teams that don't make it will not be very good anyway. 
2) There's little reason those teams should complain if they don't get in. Virginia was the only team I think was snubbed last year but I had them as no better than a 10 seed, which isn't much of a snub. The year before, it was Arizona, which I had as a 12 seed, and Middle Tennessee (a minor conference powerhouse that lost in their tournament). 

The committee does a decent job slotting teams into the field is the point (but generally a terrible job seeding them) 
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