16 March 2011

Pot odds

First round
Utah St 27.2% on ESPN vs 60.1% log5 (pomeroy's system)
Belmont 20.2% vs 39.1%
Marquette 42.9% vs 53%
Gonzaga 32.2% vs 53%
Clemson 17% vs 51% (the 51% has moved up since yesterday's drubbing of UAB, they started at around 31%, but this was because they had to also beat UAB first)
USC/VCU 16.4% vs 39.1%
ODU 39.5% vs 51.1%

Long shots
Morehead St is about 5% vs 12.5%. Wofford is similar. As is UCSB (but as a 15 seed). Bucknell is 3.1% vs 16.7%. If I was going to take any of the top 4 seed lines as an upset, that's the one I'd hit.

Not much value to pick Richmond, Missouri (in round one), Michigan St, Florida St, Penn St, or Georgia. Even Oakland is about dead on.

The real value picks emerge as the rounds continue

Washington 15.7% vs 37.7%
Utah St 10.4% vs 26.9%
Missouri 5.7% vs 19.3%
Florida St 5.7% vs 16.2
Richmond 6.3% vs 14.9%
Gonzaga 11.7% vs 22.2% (and this 22% probably undersells because BYU's rating doesn't include Davies being out)
Marquette 6.3% vs 19.4%
Cincinnati 7.7% vs 28.7%
UCLA 8.9% vs 16.8%
Belmont 5.6% vs 20.5%

Picking against Kansas St, Georgetown (yes, even as an underdog), and Florida all look interesting, but UConn and Carolina are by far the most cost effective and most obvious picks on there to go against.

Long shots:
Illinois/UNLV are running about 2%, both are about 13-14%, Clemson is also at 2% and is about 11% All the one seeds are overvalued somewhat as well, but it's less likely to nail that one. There's almost no value in picking against San Diego St.

Further into the tourney
San Diego St 31.9% vs 47.1%
Texas 19.5% vs 32%
Washington 5.8% vs 19.7%
Purdue 31.1% vs 41.8%
Louisville 16.6% vs 25.2%

No value in taking Michigan St as underdog.

Long shots:
Cincinnati 2.7% vs 11.8%
Gonzaga 3% vs 11.1%
Utah St 1.4% vs 11.9%
Belmont .8% vs 8.7%

After that, the percentages are all pretty long odds because each team has several chances to get knocked off earlier, even the big dogs.
Purdue gives some odds for final four contention. 7.7% vs 20.9%
As does Texas 10.5% vs 20.4%
And San Diego St 11.9% vs 20.7%
Kentucky is very mild 8.2% vs 13.9%
Keep avoiding UConn is basically all I'd really offer. 25.2% vs 7.2%. Carolina is also ugly.

There's not much value in the title contenders as there was last year (Duke was an amazing undersell by the field and was about dead even with Kansas in projected percentage). You can squeeze out a little if it's Duke, Pitt, Texas, or even San Diego St. And if you don't take UConn. In general, the public oversells the top seeds primarily on advancing to the title and final four, but they seem to have worked this out by the title itself.
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