06 March 2011

NCAAs champ week edition

1) Ohio St
2) Kansas
3) Duke
Still not much separation here. Ohio St managed to score prodigiously over the downtrodden wing of the Big Ten though, so it now looks a little better on title contention. Duke fell a little off the pace losing to Carolina.

4) Purdue
5) BYU
6) Texas
7) Pittsburgh

Last year there was kind of a gap between the four one seeds and the rest. This year, the last one seed is basically the same as the next 3. BYU is out by virtue of suspending one of their starting players. Pitt will probably sneak in and get the last one seed now because Purdue lost a fluke close game to Iowa at a bad time and Texas faded down the stretch.

8) Wisconsin
9) San Diego St

10) North Carolina
11) Kentucky (prior to win @ Tennessee, which helps a little)
12) Syracuse
13) Louisville

14) Washington
15) Notre Dame
16) Utah St

17) Belmont. Got in pretty handily, won by 43.
18) West Virginia
18) Illinois
20) Cincinnati

21) UNLV
22) Florida
23) Georgetown. May be higher if Wright comes back in time for the tournament.
24) George Mason (prior to today's loss to VCU).
24) Vanderbilt
26) Arizona
26) Villanova

28) Connecticut

Auto-bids so far: Belmont is listed as 5 seed quality. They will get to play either a 4 or a 5 probably in the first round. I'm a little concerned they remind me of Utah St last year (lost to Texas AM in the first round, basically #21 vs #22 on my list), but they're actually pretty scary. I'll wait for the draw to come out, but I'd be comfortable picking them for a win, maybe two. Or picking them to lose right off if they get a beastly 4-5 team that shouldn't be down that far. Both Temple and Vanderbilt last year played very good, possibly superior teams in the first round and both lost (Cornell and Murray St respectively), so we'll see I suppose.

Morehead St looks like a "good" 15, UNCA knocked out a probable 13-14 seed and instead would be in one of the play-in games, or at least be a 16 seed. Harvard looks like a weaker version of Cornell, as a 13 seed if they clinch the Ivy. Princeton is much weaker than they are if they win out.

Teams of note in conference tournaments and bubble watching: Wichita State clinched an NIT bid by bowing out of Arch Madness early. As did Cleveland State in the Horizon. Maryland managed to play their way back down to something approaching reality from their previous statistical heights. Michigan, USC, Washington St, Clemson, and New Mexico all played back into contention for bids, though only Michigan and Clemson look to be getting the committee's attention. Minnesota, Georgia, Alabama, and Memphis all look pretty weak (despite Georgia being "in" on most projections right now).
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