11 August 2008

After a Georgian offensive

I find it interesting that now that Georgia started something and couldn't handle the result they're screaming for international condemnation of Russia. There are several possibilities which don't bode well for Georgia.

1) Russia orchestrated a 'demonstration' of Georgian aggression to justify further action. This would be hard to pull off with international media. Georgia more or less admitted to invading Ossetia anyway. The end game is Russian autonomy over Georgia (rather than it being more or less a US satellite as it is now).

2) Russia orchestrated Ossetian separatists into provoking a war of aggression by Georgia which they could respond to (and further cement the ties between Ossetia and Russia). This is similar to what Bismarck did with France in order to unite the remaining Germanic principalities into Prussian Germany..then proceeded to crush the French army in a few weeks. I use this sort of trick in CIV all the time..get someone to declare war on me and then unleash hell. They look like the international bad guy while you take over their territory (which it sounds like Russia is sort of doing).

In any case, it is sort of fun to have a geo-political war to comment on (other than Iraq)..except for the fact that there is a war.

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