13 March 2016

Random bracket thoughts, brain dump

Bubble team wise. The committee did not do terribly. Tulsa was a major shock to be included at all. I assumed that being blown out by Memphis would sink their chances. Syracuse and Michigan both had decent cases relative to the rest of the options. All of these teams were fairly middling
Teams that got in who were on the bubble or off the radar
25) Vanderbilt 9-13
39) Syracuse 9-12-1
50) Michigan 8-12
65) Tulsa 7-10-1
93) Temple 8-10-1

Teams that did not
31) St Mary's 4-3-2
38) Valpo 5-1-5
43) San Diego St 3-7-2 (very surprised they were considered at all as an at-large)
52) South Carolina 13-7-1 (biggest surprise not to be included. RPI ranks of their opponents probably screwed them out of some quality wins as I have them at 3 top 50 wins. They did not schedule well out of conference as another ding).
66) Monmouth 5-4-3
87) St Bonaventure 5-4-4 (very high RPI, 5-8 record is underwhelming, with zero top 25 wins).

What I notice is that the teams that got in have a) far more "quality games" played against top 100 opponents, b) zero or 1 bad loss only outside of that, and c) more top 25 or top 50 wins as well.

It is unclear to me why there was a campaign around Monmouth instead of Valparaiso as the small conference team that got screwed. Based on this assessment, probably the team that got screwed (by Tulsa being included) was South Carolina and not these other two however.

Final Ranks first
1) Kansas 21-3-1
(there's a very slight gap here, and yes, Kansas lost to a non top 100 opponent, they were blown out at Oklahoma State)
2) Michigan State 16-5 (was screwed out of #1 seed by the timing of the Big Ten title game)
3) North Carolina 19-6
4) Virginia 19-7
5) Villanova 17-5
6) West Virginia 13-8

7) Oklahoma 15-7
8) Kentucky 18-7-1 (totally baffled as to how they ended up a #4 and Texas AM got a #3. I can only conclude losing to Auburn on the road hurt them quite a lot.)
9) Purdue 13-7-1
10) Louisville 10-8 (ineligible)

11) Arizona 13-8
12) Indiana 12-4-3
13) Oregon 20-4-2
14) Miami 17-6-1
15) Texas AM 17-8
16) Xavier 13-5
17) Duke 13-10

18) Wichita St 4-7-1 (underwhelming record)
19) SMU (ineligible)
19) Iowa St 11-11
19) Iowa 10-8-2
22) Maryland 13-7-1

23) Gonzaga 6-7
24) California 12-8-2
25) Vanderbilt 9-13
26) Baylor 10-11
27) Connecticut 12-10
28) Seton Hall 12-7-1
29) Utah 17-7-1
30) Cincinnati 9-10
31) St Mary's 4-3-2 (NIT)

32) Texas 12-11-1
33) VCU 4-7-3
34) Butler 9-9-1
35) Notre Dame 10-11
36) Wisconsin 10-9-3
37) Florida 10-14 (NIT)
38) Valpo 5-1-5 (NIT)
39) Syracuse 9-12-1
40) Pittsburgh 8-11
41) St Joseph's 8-5-2
42) USC 11-11-1
43) San Diego St 3-7-2 (NIT)
44) BYU 3-5-5 (NIT)
45) Florida St 9-13 (NIT)
46) Texas Tech 9-11-1
46) Creighton 5-12-2 (NIT?)
48) Providence 11-7-3
49) Dayton 10-6-1
50) Michigan 8-12
51) Kansas St 4-15-1 (?)
52) South Carolina 13-7-1
53) Colorado 7-11
54) UALR 4-1-3
55) Clemson 7-12-2 (?)
(last likely upset bids were in that big clustered group)
56) Stephen F Austin 0-3-2
57) Yale 0-3-3
58) Georgia Tech 10-13-1 (NIT)

64) Hawaii 3-2-3
65) Tulsa 7-10-1
66) Monmouth 5-4-3 (NIT)
67) Oregon St 10-11-1
72) Northern Iowa 8-3-9 (9 bad losses?)
78) South Dakota St 0-1-6
87) Stony Brook 1-2-4
88) Iona 2-6-4
89) UNC Wilmington 5-3-4
93) Temple 8-10-1
100) Fresno St
101) Chattanooga
110) Bakersfield
121) Green Bay
122) UNC Asheville
124) Middle Tennessee
134) Buffalo
135) Weber St
(16 seeds)
179) Florida Gulf Coast
218) Austin Peay
219) Southern
246) Hampton
263) Fairleigh Dickinson
268) Holy Cross

General thoughts
Oregon looks like a very weak #1 seed. They beat a lot of teams but lost two games to inferior squads, and have a margin of victory that looks more like a #4 seed.

Michigan State effectively leads the nation in margin of victory (SFA is the only team ahead of them, and they have played no one) and rebounding margin. How that does not get a #1 seed, not sure.

Kentucky and Texas AM should have at least been flipped.

Arizona was probably screwed by seeding. They will now get a tough game against a pretty good #11 seed play-in (either team is pretty good), plus have to play a game in Providence, all the way across the country.

All of the 9 seeds look better than the 8 seeds. USC-Providence is the only one that even looks close. Tulsa in the field? Oregon St looks incredibly weak for a #7.

Weakest top 20 seeded (1-5s) teams for the first round really only looks like Cal (bad on the road). Baylor has bad odds against Yale, because the game is being played in Providence.

Easiest "upsets" possibilities appear to be Oregon St and Seton Hall to lose. Arizona has unpleasant odds against Vandy and Wichita also (partly because they must travel across the country).

East Region has 5 top 15 teams and then a huge drop (Notre Dame is the 6th best team in the region, but ranks like an 8-9 seed).

Midwest Region has 4 top 20 teams and a smoother drop.

South Region has 6 top 20 teams and 10 top 30 teams, then a big drop. Considering Kansas is the #1 overall, this is not an encouraging development for them.

West - 4 top 15 teams and a big drop after that. This is by far the "easiest" region. 
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