18 February 2016

NCAA Rankings

General thoughts on NCAA season so far: 
No clear favorite has emerged. Villanova appears to be slightly better but not by much, not only over the top 4 but also the next tier down. 

Two teams that are ineligible for post season play are in the top 25, which opens up slots for weaker teams.

Many more teams appear to be in a middling state that hasn't separated from the pack, which will make the bubble teams very soft at selection time. Few of those teams have good records against good teams, see Vanderbilt, Creighton, and Kansas St (teams with tough schedules and poor records) versus Providence, South Carolina, and Colorado (better records and similarly tough schedules, but more "bad" losses).

Almost none of those bubble or middling teams are in minor or mid-major conferences. Valparaiso, Monmouth, and UALR appear to be possible "surprise" teams for later, and maybe the only teams possible to "take" a spot should they not win their conference's automatic bid. Most of the bubble is from the ACC, SEC, and Pac-12 teams that are closer to average, and not minor conferences. There are somewhat more of these minor conference teams that are in the 69-85 range than usual right now, but not many in the top 60.

As always, records are versus top 100 teams only (teams generally likely to be in the NCAA tournament). Gaudy records against more mediocre teams will not impress me. 

1) Villanova 13-3
2) Michigan St 10-5
3) Virginia 13-5
4) Kansas 13-4

5) Louisville (ineligible) 7-6
6) West Virginia 11-6
7) Oklahoma 13-5
8) North Carolina 12-5

9) Duke 12-6
10) Arizona 11-5
10) Kentucky 12-5-1
12) Iowa 9-5-1

13) Miami  13-3-1
14) Xavier 10-3
14) Purdue 10-5-1
16) Maryland 11-4
16) Indiana 9-4-2

18) Iowa St 11-8
19) Wichita St 5-6-1
20) SMU (ineligible) 8-3
21) Texas AM 12-7
22) Oregon 11-5-1

23) Gonzaga 3-6
24) Notre Dame 8-7
25) Vanderbilt 5-11

Ranked Teams not in 25
40) Dayton 7-3-1
51) Providence 9-5-3
28) Texas 11-8-1
36) Baylor 9-7
54) South Carolina 10-4-1
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