15 March 2015

NCAA rankings Final Madness edition

All records are top 100, with top 50 only records in parentheses.

1) Kentucky 23-0 (17-0) Gap closed a bit here. They will probably win the title, but if you're looking for a dark horse, don't expect one to appear until the Final Four (they would potentially play Arizona or Wisconsin, who are in the same region).

2) Arizona 12-2-1 (4-0)
3) Wisconsin 20-2-1 (13-2)
4) Villanova 19-1-1 (11-1)
5) Virginia 17-3 (9-3)
6) Gonzaga 9-2 (4-2)
7) Duke 20-4 (8-4)
Those are the best shots for a darkhorse. Duke is pretty clearly not a good choice however (lots of people are picking them and they're the worst of the group).

8) Utah 9-7-1 (2-4) - Fell out of the previous tier. I think with good reason, they didn't win many good games, and they didn't win on the road.
9) Oklahoma 14-9-1 (10-6)
10) North Carolina 14-11 (8-10)
11) Kansas 21-8. That's not a typo. That's basically their overall record. (13-6)
12) Notre Dame 15-5 (10-3)
13) Iowa State 18-7-1 (13-5)

14) Baylor 16-9 (10-8)
15) Michigan State 11-9-2 (8-8)
16) Wichita State 8-4 (1-2)
17) Ohio State 9-10 (4-9)
18) Louisville 12-8 (6-7)
19) Northern Iowa 8-2-1 (3-2)
I don't like Ohio State being this high, mostly because they look terrible record wise and don't win on the road. If they weren't playing VCU in the first round, they'd look interesting as an upset special team for a couple of rounds.

20) Texas 8-13 (3-12)
21) Butler 8-10 (4-9) (yes these two play each other in the first round)
22) Xavier 11-9-4 (8-5)
23) Georgetown 9-10 (5-9)
24) West Virginia 12-9 (6-9)

25) SMU 12-6 (0-5) Yes that's a 0 for wins in the top 50.
26) Iowa 9-10-1 (6-7)
27) Arkansas 13-8 (7-6)
28) BYU 3-6-3 (1-5) - Basically snuck in a play-in game because of the Gonzaga win.
29) San Diego State 10-6-2 (2-4)
30) Providence 12-8-3 (6-6)
31) VCU 13-8-1 (5-4)
32) Maryland 13-6 (8-6)

33) Davidson 8-5-2 (2-4)
34) North Carolina State 14-11-2 (4-9)
35) Georgia 10-10-1 (6-6)
36) Oklahoma State 9-12-1 (5-9)

37) Florida (Not in the tournament) 8-16-1 (3-14) - They're the highest rated in part because they played a lot of games against tough competition and played many of those games competitively. But lost almost all of them so they weren't going anywhere (probably not to the NIT either).
38) Miami 9-10-2 (also not in) (4-7)
39) LSU 11-6-4 (8-3)
40) Purdue 11-10-2 (7-8)
41) Mississippi 10-10-2 (5-8)
42) Cincinnati 8-7-3 (4-3)
43) Dayton 8-6-2 (3-3)
44) Stephen F Austin 1-3-1 (0-3)
45) Indiana 9-11-2 (5-11)
46) Boise State 6-5-3 (2-2)
47) St John's 9-9-2 (5-8)
- This group has the last set of teams to worry about as upset potential in the early rounds. None of them looks like a deep run team however.

48) Vanderbilt 9-11-2 (3-8) (not in tournament)
49) UCLA 4-10-3 (1-7) - I have little idea how this team was even considered for the NCAA tournament. Note that almost all of the at-large teams above have more than 4 wins against the top 100, and more than 1 win in the top 50. UCLA also appears to have been considered more highly than BYU (BYU is in a play-in game), which is baffling.
50) Stanford 5-10-2 (1-6) - Note the similarities in Stanford and UCLA. It seems strange that one was okay and the other was not.
51) Texas A&M 7-10-1 (4-7) - not in
52) Oregon 10-7-2 (3-5)
53) Illinois 6-12-1 (4-8) - not in
54) Buffalo 3-4-5 (0-2)
- There's a mix of "not-in" teams listed here for comparison. I do not think much of any of the teams that are in as a result.

66) Valparaiso 3-1-4 (0-0)
67) Georgia State 1-4-5 (0-1)
92) Wofford 2-3-3 (1-2)
94) New Mexico State 2-6-4 (0-2) - Not sure how they ended up with a 15 seed.
96) UC-Irvine
97) Harvard
102) Wyoming 7-4 (3-3)
111) Northeastern
- This grouping is possible upset fodder, but not much potential beyond that.

126) Albany
129) Eastern Washington
131) UAB
133) North Florida
145) Manhattan
146) Coastal Carolina
148) Belmont
168) North Dakota State
178) Robert Morris
186) Lafayette
190) Texas Southern
253) Hampton
- None of these teams should win a game.

Other bubble considered teams that did not get in.
62) Colorado State 7-3-3 (2-3)
63) Temple 8-9-1 (2-6) - This to me was the strangest exclusion when compared to UCLA.
64) Old Dominion 5-2-5 (2-0)
As I see it, these teams are all in the low 60 ranking wise anyway, so their inclusion would be quite strange as it is. If I had to pick a team to put in, it would have been Miami, followed by Temple or Texas A&M.
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