04 March 2013

NCAA March edition

1) Florida 11-5
2) Indiana 12-4

3) Louisville 11-5
4) Gonzaga  11-2
5) Duke       13-4
6) Kansas     13-3-1

7) Syracuse      11-7
8) Pittsburgh    10-6-1
9) Michigan      11-4-1
10) Wisconsin   10-9
11) Michigan St 10-7
12) Ohio St         7-7
13) Miami         10-4-1

14) Oklahoma St  7-5-1
15) Georgetown 11-3-1
16) Minnesota    10-8-1
17) Creighton     11-6-1
18) VCU            10-6

19) St Marys      6-3-2
20) Arizona        9-5-1
21) Missouri      8-8
22) Virginia        6-2-7
23) Marquette     9-6-1
24) St Louis      10-4-1
25) San Diego St 6-8

Ranked Teams
26) New Mexico 16-4
29) Kansas St       7-5
35) Memphis        6-4
44) Oregon          7-5-1
62) Louisiana Tech 3-2-1

Most of the action this week wasn't in the rankings, but in the bubble. Tennessee and Virginia both had big wins (Florida and Duke), and big losses (Georgia and BC), on balance this ought to be helpful to both however. Maryland had a big loss (Wake) that moved them out of contention entirely. Alabama could have moved back into discussion by beating Florida on the road but couldn't hold on. Boise St moved up into serious bubble contention finally. 

At the moment I have these teams in the field that won't (or can't) make it and/or are seriously weakened by the last week or so of games. 
37) Iowa      5-9-2
45) Connecticut 8-9 (ineligible) 
46) Baylor   5-10-2
47) Ole Miss 5-6-2
50) Denver   2-8 (will need to win WAC tournament)

And the bubble discussions have these two in that I don't
55) Villanova  7-10-2
71) Temple      8-5-3

Which likely leaves Boise or Tennessee as the other at-large, assuming nothing strange happens with conference tournaments. Neither is all that impressive. 
54) Boise         7-6-2
55) Tennessee  8-9-2

Last year Colorado came out of nowhere to win the Pac-12 tournament (but the Pac-12 was really, really weak last year for a supposed power conference) and St Bonaventure won the A10 where they shouldn't have also. Iona got an at-large from the MAAC as well.  I'd say an average of 2-3 bids are off every year from conference tournaments (plus the two-three teams that win a tournament unexpectedly but would have been at-large bids anyway). So it's quite possible that none of the bubble teams get in. And that none of them would have deserved to. Temple's the only one with a .500 record essentially. 
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