05 February 2009

Homework assignment

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/05/economics-cage-match-delongkrugman-vs-cochranefama/

If anyone has time, read all four. If not, read at least Fama and DeLong. Krugman is an abrasive bastard (being dismissive without addressing the conclusions of his opponent, just the flawed reasoning), and Cochrane's arguments aren't well framed (ie, he presents a nice conclusion without appropriate reasoning to reach it).

I'm skeptical of calling this a "stimulus" package. Particularly since the public doesn't seem to agree it's a stimulus at all. That's the key issue that is only just touched on: consumer confidence and spending (as well as private investment) must be boosted by anything worthy of the name "stimulus". Either the government and its supporting economists need to get on with the public relations work to explain what this would do (which nobody really knows because there are few useful empirical studies on fiscal policy). Or they need to frame the package itself only in ways which are potentially economically beneficial and confidence inspiring, rather than politically based junk (which is most likely impossible).

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