actual picks

Here’s what I actually picked
Weakest 1: I have UCLA losing first, usually to either Duke (unconventional) or UConn (still odd). But that’s only about half the time. Memphis clearly has the worst draw with Texas in Houston. I don’t see any 8-9s knocking off a 1 this year either and none of the 4s look promising either. It relies on a 2/3, which means Wisconsin v Kansas (maybe), Texas, and maybe Duke to win. No sleeper final four teams outside of this list exist in my mind: Kansas, Carolina, UCLA, Memphis, Texas, Duke, Wisconsin, and maybe Georgetown (I did not like the MW bracket, ouch). If a George Mason comes along and someone picks it, good for you. You’re an orange.
UCLA looks weakest because their D isn’t as good as advertised inside. They focus too much on that hedgehog crap which really doesn’t matter.

Weakest 2: Tennessee is clearly the weakest 2. Again. Why the committee or RPI likes this team so much I don’t know. I stuck with either Butler or Oklahoma beating them. Georgetown will have trouble with Wisconsin. Duke will have some matchup problems with West Va or Arizona or UCLA and UConn, but they cause matchup problems too so it’s a wash.

Weakest 3 seed: Louisville - losing to Oklahoma. Stanford doesn’t look great against Marquette (strongest 6 seed). Xavier is fairly weak but has the easiest draw. Wisconsin has a tough draw, but it’s beatable.

weakest 4 seed: Vandy and Pitt. Vandy is weaker. Much weaker. Either Clemson or Nova beating them every time, if not Siena. Vandy I complain about every year and except for last year they sneak up on me. I watched them more carefully though. They look terrible away from home. Pitt I have losing to either ORU or MSU. Wash St is merely decent, but I have some reservations about Notre Dame because of the weak road record. Really only UConn looked good.

weakest 5: Drake, sort of. None of them look particularly weak. Notre Dame and Clemson have the biggest ’problems’ because of their reliance on big guys. Temple is the only 12 in a position to exploit this though. Western Kentucky on further reflection looks like they will be crushed and has the worst chance at an upset. Michigan St could go on a deep run or could lose in the first round. They’re weird like Arizona.

weakest 6: Purdue. Baylor looks like the best chance at an upset. Not Kansas St.
Marquette is really strong (and Kentucky isn’t). Oklahoma just got a favorable draw for upsets, but a reasonably tough first round game.

7-10: Lots of people picked Butler (but the game is in Alabama, weird). St. Mary’s looks like the obvious upset, with Davidson looking pretty solid as well.
8-9: UNLV looks toast, Oregon is weak (especially on D). BYU-AM game was the toughest 8-9 call. Really none of these games mattered though besides the one point, first round.

The bad news, much like last year. There doesn’t seem to be really any double digit Cinderella teams laying in wait to win a couple games. Best options: Kansas St, Arizona and Villanova. Last year: Winthrop was obvious first round. VCU was obvious. And Wisconsin losing was obvious (in retrospect UNLV was obvious too, but I was silly and went with the bad road team).

Random things to watch out for: Teams that won 6 of last 10: USC, Duke, Stanford, Indiana. They may do poorly. Arizona has to go across country to play in DC and Gonzaga in Raleigh. Going East is usually the hard one if I remember correctly.

Best ’pot odds’ in gamblers speak on ESPN -- pick anyone other than Carolina to win it all. 33% seems a way too high, people get suckered by the pro-ACC message. Picking Oklahoma over Louisville (9%?). Picking South Alabama (USA 17%, looks like a Congress approval rating?) to beat Butler. Not picking Pitt deep, and Michigan St instead (thanks Bobby Knight, you’re still reliable to pick against even when you’re not coaching). Washington St over ND looks ok, but there’s not as much of advantage as picking against Vanderbilt has. Even 40% to the Sweet 16 is too high.

Oh, and don’t count on West Virginia over Duke. Bob Huggins has never coached an upset over a higher seeded team ever in his tournament resume.

Crazier bet wise: pick Texas to lose early.

My Final Four: Carolina, Kansas, Duke, Memphis.
Final Eight: Texas, UCLA, Wisconsin, Oklahoma. (yes 3 from Big 12, I’m weird).