17 July 2012

Random NBA thoughts

1) Kobe is crazy. I don't see any particular way the 92 Team loses to this one or the 08 team. There's about 4 guys on this team that would have a shot to make the 92 team (Kobe, LeBron, Durant, and Paul), over Laettner, Bird (retired and injured), and probably Malone or Mullin in my mind. Howard might have a case over Ewing also if he was healthy and Rose or Wade would be other options if healthy over Drexler and Magic (couldn't guard anyone and was, like Bird there because of the name more than his remaining skill level). Main reason I'd take the 92 team, other than the obvious MJ in prime feature, plus Pippen, Robinson, Barkley, Stockton in primes, was that they're a way better passing team at every position. Ewing might have been the worst passer on that team. In an international or all-star game, that matters. Hell, it matters at the NBA title level. Teams that can move the ball and run plays or set each other up play unselfishly and conserve energy for defence. Which speaking of which.. that team would also look better given that they had two centers who could run the floor and were all-NBA defence (Ewing/Robinson), two defensive player of year perimeter guys (Jordan/Pippen), a decent defensive point guard (Stockton, who did after all get the steals record too by the way), and a number of guys at every other position who could rebound and jump passing lanes. Again, Mullin, Malone, injured Bird and Laettner are the only liabilities there (and three of those guys could get after the glass at least). So yeah, count me in the consensus that says that wouldn't be all that close of a game.

2) I'm not sure why NY is so annoyed about the Lin signing. I do think they could have done some way to swallow the poison pill deal that Houston offered (3rd year) by using it as an expiring contract deal to trade off to some other team (or to free up cap space themselves down the road), and it is NY after all. But it was probably way overpaying his actual performance on court versus merchandise value and possible new fan base. I'd be a little concerned about losing both him and Fields and replacing that with an aging Kidd/Camby combo and another point guard that can't shoot (Felton). They had better start hoping that Amare remembers how to play in the offseason up there.

3) Boston way overpaid Jeff Green. That one draws an eyebrow from me. Getting Sullinger, and predictably noting that he can't get his shot off inside in summer league games, also odd. He does however dominate the glass and can sink a jump shot, and has some inside moves. So it's not a bad fall. Terry helps cushion the Ray Allen FU move on the way out (taking less money). I can't say I'd blame him though.

4) Kind of interested to see if Brandon Roy has anything in the tank left. Medical tech seems to be advancing such that he should be able to wrangle a couple of productive years and he does fill the biggest void in the Wolves roster (Wesley Johnson? Wayne Ellington?). They could be pretty good over the next couple years with their young core (like OKC did, getting better every year). A core of Love, Rubio, Williams, Pekovic, and Roy, plus some role players (Budinger or Barea), doesn't sound too bad. Add a couple draft picks and/or signing Batum and it starts to look interesting.

5) Not sure what the Clippers were doing signing Jamal Crawford. I think there's a good reason he parlayed a sixth man award into only a one year contract last year after all. Predictably, Blake tears up his knee during Olympic duty. I suppose Crawford is a slight upgrade over Nick Young, but that's not saying much.

6) Houston is fucked if they don't get Dwight. Scola, Lowry, Budinger, Dalembert, probably Lee also, all gone. They did get Royce White and Terrence Jones in the draft, and still, for now, have Kevin Martin (efficient all offense player unlike inefficient all offense Monte Ellis), and a couple other decent roles but that's a 30 win team without Howard.

7) I don't think the Lakers are title contenders with Nash. They still can't guard the point, and Kobe needs the ball to score. Or wants it at least, when it should be going more to Gasol or Bynum.  Chemistry is not that easy to do. If they get Howard, then they start to look more interesting.

8) Golden State can stay healthy they might be about to make some noise this coming year. Starting five looks interesting. Bogut, Curry, Barnes (a big maybe there), Klay Thompson, and David Lee. If they keep Rush and Jack, that's not bad off the bench. It's not a 50 win team, but it might slip into the playoffs the way Utah did this year.

9) Phoenix, or Portland didn't do much to add value and are basically blowing up their teams. I'd expect them of them to drop like a rock. Ditto Atlanta and Orlando.

10) Brooklyn should actually be good but not that good. Joe Johnson is perennially overrated as a star quality player. Dumping a few of their bad contracts wasn't a bad move (Morrow especially), but that won't make them into a contender versus Boston, Chicago or Miami in the conference, much less OKC and co out West.

11) Denver and Philly did very well in a shorter condensed schedule by virtue of having deep benches. I'm not sure that Philly will still be around, depending on if they trade Iggy or not (they're already down Lou Williams and Brand and Kwame Brown is not a name one wants to see on the "additions" ledger, neither is Nick Young), and Denver has some skilled players but I'm not sure how they'd move up with what they've got.

12) Going out on a limb, Charlotte and New Orleans will not be as bad as last year. New Orleans may have a very outside shot at the playoffs, though that depends on Davis being as very good as advertised, Rivers not being as terrible as many project, Gordon being Gordon, and chemistry working to form. Charlotte will just not be the dregs of the league history repeated.

13) Dallas and San Antonio being a year older will not amount to much improvement. Dallas has a shot to miss the playoffs with this team. All things considered, they did have some decent value pickups. Collison, Kaman, and Crowder for example. But none of those are jumping out as outstanding moves. San Antonio has advantages of retaining the team chemistry from a year ago and a couple of skilled younger guys (Parker is sort of younger even though he's been around forever, and Splitter and Leonard are very good).

Quiz it

There's a political quiz here: http://www.isidewith.com
Which appears designed to deal with the problems routinely found in an uninformed electorate voting wildly upon issues that they may or may not care much about for candidates that may or may not actually share those views or act to carry them into law.

I went through and took this. For the most part, I find that the questions lack enough sophistication for more nuanced positions, more radical positions, or more... unique positions.  I have some quibbles with the scoring system as well, but not many. They seemed for instance to properly identify Obama as a drug warrior rather than as a drug-reformer or drug-decriminalisation advocate as is sometimes claimed, nor as an anti-war candidate as was commonly believed during the 2008 election (see Afghanistan), and there doesn't appear to be much "socialist!" idiocy. I also quibble with the fact that there isn't much dealing with the Iraq war or the Libya incursion, at least directly, for foreign policy.

Going through, these would be my more specific responses. (And short version, they didn't get into monetary policy enough for me to greatly distinguish Ron Paul from Gary Johnson and that abortion and immigration had to be relied upon. But both of them crushed everyone else. This should not be surprising)

Foreign policy

Should the US intervene in the affairs of other countries? I picked the "only if it serves national security", which to me read as the proximate statement for "realist concerns benefiting a strong or vital national interest only". That does not include "humanitarian" missions employing military force use for the most part and definitely doesn't include regime changing occupation missions.

How should the US deal with Iran? I went with "Maintain diplomacy while discouraging the use of nuclear weapons" My actual position would be something akin to "continue to attempt to slow development if possible or practicable of actual weapons, and use international law/treaty and diplomacy to enforce non-proliferation rather than military force". I'm not sure what "discouraging the use of nuclear weapons" means in practical terms but it could mean providing a nuclear deterrent against their use (M.A.D style?), or it could mean arms reduction treaties to limit the scope and size of any possible nuclear wars along with disarmament or IAEA/NPT compliance for other countries. Given that there's a lot of preposterous fear mongering relating to Iran's technical capacities for missile launches and conventional payloads (both of which might at best represent threats to Israeli security, for which they are amply supplied to defend or counter by themselves, and neither of which represents any severe danger to American security), I'm guessing that only our experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan have prevented outright warfare by diminishing the public appetite for additional conflict.   

Should the US maintain a presence at the UN? "Yes". Generally speaking diplomacy is cheap, even if it doesn't always provide gains to us, and as a "great power", we have veto powers to prevent things that we perceive as against our interests from happening through diplomatic means (much as China and Russia do). As a realist, while I recognize the international community won't always function according to legal dictums, it serves our interests to a) appear to go through the motions such that when rare actual forceful actions are necessary, as they might appear to be motivated by more noble concerns and thus shared in by others (obviously this has not been the case in our choice of recent actions), b) to use the existing structure to preserve or achieve power by avoiding tedious and expensive wastes of conflict for our blood and treasure by securing interests in other ways, and c) to provide diplomatic channels to secure and demonstrate alliances of convenience to hegemonic power or to cushion the decrease in relative power to a multi-polar world.

Should the US end the war in Afghanistan? "Yes". I also went with a stronger constraint on the War Powers Act, such that wars should be declared more affirmatively by Congress and only carried out by the CINC powers of the Presidency. Drone warfare should be included in this, even if it has more vague powers of declaration associated with it. The idea that "military leaders" should be allowed to determine whether any political or national interests are served by continuing a conflict is totally ludicrous to me. They can tell us whether those missions of vital interest could be carried out, what resources are required, and engage in military discipline and strategic planning with some latitude, but deciding whether or not to stay in a country for us? Stupid.

Should the US continue to support Israel? "No". In so far as we should provide aid if they were attacked and invaded (foolishly) by a rival country, fine. I can see that argument, much as we might if Western Europe or Australia were attacked by some (largely fictional) enemy. Those scenarios are extremely unlikely given the relative power of any allied military to their enemies for possible invasion (even South Korea could win against North Korea rather handily, just the terribly high cost of civilian infrastructure and population in the South prevents such a conflict). I can see arguments for sharing intelligence on terrorist networks for global purposes also. In so far as we should unilaterally or even tacitly support whatever Israeli policies are internally, or projected into Palestinian occupied territories, no.

How should the US handle the genocide in Sudan? "Don't get involved". I'm not sure how our involvement would or could resolve the situation. See Kosovo or Somalia for how interventions don't work out. Or Libya for a more recent example. Sudan also sounds like less of a regime matter and more a local tribal conflict that the regime has exploited and expanded, and which would require a very considerable investment on our part to dial down successfully (essentially a large occupation/peacekeeping force positioned for an indefinite period and effectively supporting one or more of the rival factions). To boot, the US does not have substantial diplomatic ties with the current Sudanese government on which to carry any influential weight as it is in the Chinese or Russian sphere of influence. Official US policy should be non-intervention. Private citizens may lobby the Chinese if they want as was done with a modest success in the South Sudan situation.

Should the United States end its trade embargo and travel ban on Cuba? Generally I am opposed to embargoes on any country. The type of country which a trade ban or boycott or other restriction is likely to have useful effect is likely to be the sort of country we are unlikely to use such things against (that is: a country with a democratically accountable government and a large developed economy). There are types of embargoes that may more penalise the intended targets (such as by trying to track and freeze the assets of corrupt regime leaders when moved to foreign and aligned countries, which limits opportunities for investment and growth of those private assets), but wide scale embargoes accomplish little but to impoverish, even starve or otherwise endanger, the general public of a rival country at the expense of providing a cheap propaganda point on which a dictatorial leader may rally support against our initiatives. For no probable gain on our behalf. Eg, they are counter-productive. It is sensible that US interests may be served by limiting military technology or friendly espionage with rival countries, but this is not what the trade and travel bans intend. Trade and travel restrictions should really only be used during a time of active war and conflict.

Immigration

Should children of illegal immigrants be granted citizenship? I went with "yes if they were born here." In general I see citizenship as distinct from open borders policies for residency or trade and labour. People should want to definitively associate themselves as "Americans" to participate fully and for civic purposes in our society as citizens. But in so far as it would then be necessary to make distinctions from current American citizens being born here instead of just getting citizenship, I don't see any reason to make such a distinction to shut off immigrants receiving citizenship at birth in the same way that other residents do.


Should illegal immigrants be given access to paid health care? "Yes". Medical ethics demands this to some extent. I am not convinced that this is a substantial driver of costs (The "ER use" mythology is very powerful). Essentially I think the same arguments against immigrants being denied care would have to apply to any poor person or anyone who lacked insurance, etc.

Should illegal immigrants working in the US be granted temporary amnesty? Again, yes. I would prefer some combination of the following: auctioning off work visas to businesses rather than requiring businesses to prove need, increased allowances for entrance through this means, and especially a simplified means of accessing citizenship rather than extension hoop jumps we use now. We are generally enriched by immigration for cultural and economic reasons and I don't see a reason to reduce this enrichment by worrying about boot millions of people out of country.

Science

Do you support the Theory of Evolution? I suppose this is a proxy for other social conservative value assessments. (Eg, a way to provide additional emphasis to anti-gay or anti-abortion stances). Otherwise, I'm not sure what filtering value this question serves. Being anti-rational or anti-humanist isn't exactly an unpopular political view in the US, and is actually something that takes the format of being influenced by other political ideological views. Liberals end up being more likely to take views opposing GM foods or vaccinations or nuclear power with more seriousness because they hold anti-corporate views just as social conservatives take creationism and abortion and homosexuality with more seriousness than the science would indicate is deserved because of faith-based views. 

Should the federal government fund stem cell research? If the grant proposals involved in such research are very promising, I suppose a case can be made here. I'm skeptical that this is actually the case for much stem cell research that the government needs to be encouraging it in some special way that the private market doesn't have incentives to do already. The question here also simplifies the disparity between adult stem cells and embryonic stem cells; which is where most social conservatives seem concerned, though for my purposes, it doesn't matter. I'm opposed to subsidizing this sort of thing not on moral grounds but on economic grounds. There are more promising or more directly practical lines of medical and genetic research available to lavish with public monies.

Should the US increase our space exploration efforts and budget? Other than satellite surveillance or communications, or things like GPS, I'm not convinced the US requires a public space programme. If private enterprise wants to do space tourism, exploration, or maintain orbital platforms for their own use, I'm fine with that. I don't think this should be a NASA centric effort and there are other ways to exhort Americans to take up the cause of science and mathematics in ways that they presently do not.


Health Care


Should marijuana be legalised in the US? Yes. With the additional requirements of a) a regulated open market, including possible medical uses for anyone and recreational use for adults and b) the reduction or elimination of criminal penalties for nonviolent offences associated with marijuana (or other narcotic substances).

Do you support the PPACA (Obamacare)? There really wasn't a good response here. My preference is a universal catastrophic coverage system provided by the government in exchange for taxes or mandated medical savings, basic subsidies for people who are poor or lower income or medically disabled, and then open it up from there to anyone who wants first dollar coverage or augmented elements to the private insurance market (which should be cheaper to provide if catastrophic care is augmented with government payments). This idea is some version of Singapore, Wyden-Bennett, and to some extent the Ryan plan. This also feeds into the next question...

Should we expand or dismantle our medicare programme? To which I would reply dismantle. It is an unsustainable economic model in the American polity to ask poorer working young people to pay for the health care of richer retired old people. Asking working people to pay for health care for poor people might be a justifiable system. Asking them to pay for the elderly on the basis of an arbitrary retirement age being reached is stupid. This idea should be phased out, starting with means testing benefits, then a general overhaul of medical insurance structure such that people when they retire ought to have some amount of funding available for their own needs privately held (eg, mandated HSA style accounts). This is but one example of vast transfers of wealth from poor to rich within our system (Home mortgage interest deductions are another), an idea which is both socially unjust and economically unsustainable.

Domestic policies 

Do you support increased gun control? I am opposed on some general liberties and Constitutional rights, and am agnostic about the efficacy of gun control setups that have been used. Some were genuinely bad and counterproductive, others seem to have at least "noble" goals and had minimal harm on the public they were enforced against (assault weapon bans for instance or constraints on ex-felons or mentally ill). I am however not all that fond of a social mindset that sees guns in the home and on one's person as essential. I just don't see that there are many sensible legal ways to restrict this attitude. Other than to make it less feel less essential (eg, make people aware that crime is rare, for instance, for most of us). So "no".

Do you support the Patriot Act? There are probably some provisions in there that were or are still of actual utility (some position of unified intelligence and intelligence sharing between various bureaus for example, if they were ever to use such a system might be beneficial. They do not appear to have done so very efficiently). But most of it read like a laundry list of law enforcement wants that exceeded Constitutional mandates, and offered little actual anti-terrorism effects. The general effect of security theater policies, especially in the formation of the Homeland Security cabinet position and the arbitrary methods of the TSA, does little to inspire confidence that other government provisions were of any necessity either. So "no".

Should the government regulate the internet to deter online piracy? Generally no. I am opposed to stronger intellectual property rights defenses, and support weakening of public domain laws and patent trolling powers. I do think that piracy of movies and music, along with video games, is a legitimate concern for those industries, but it does not appear to cause sufficient harm to their abilities to make creative works, distribute them, and to profit by them. Indeed, piracy itself seems heavily related to either a) distorted price controlled markets or b) items of considerable popularity. That is: something being pirated a lot ought to tell us that something is really, really popular already and is probably already making a lot of money. It would better if people weren't pirating it.. but the music industry finally seems to have twigged to resolving a partial solution by using digital distribution methods like itunes, and movies or TV shows will eventually concede to things like Netflix streaming or ala carte cable subscriptions as a method of generating revenues for consumption of their works. These methods do not eliminate piracy, but seem to alleviate it by offering ways to buy into the market and participate as a consumer without the old methods of having to consume entire albums, or to purchase on reserve copies of DVD/Blue-Rays for movies and shows that we may enjoy but probably don't want to own.

Are you in favor of decriminalising all drugs? Yes. As with marijuana, the problem is generally medical, not legal. It should be treated as such rather than as locking up addicts and providers with no other basis. I am skeptical that mere possession ought to be a basis for sending people off to drug treatment centres either (seems like a wasteful lack of filtering), but this is quite a bit better than locking such people up in prisons and jails and implementing invasive and aggressive police tactics to deal with non-violent criminals. If drug dealers are killing each other or their violence and aggression challenges a neighbourhood for other reasons, we should naturally be concerned. But just selling and possessing and using things ought not to automatically concern us.

Should we limit federal funds to public schools that do not meet performance standards? If we had some means of school choice, I should think this would be handled by parents and markets without need for federal decisions for implementing standards based testing that is probably counterproductive to providing a broad based general k-12 education and lacks effective enforcement methods at this time. I see several problems with this: one the current methods are ineffective, two, it's difficult to present what federal standards ought to be, or a basis for why they should override local or state standards, and three, who monitors these standards and how is a punitive method by reducing funds to a trapped school district a means of effectively improving the quality of education available to students and parents in that neighbourhood or city?

Do you support affirmative action programmes? "No, but we should offer social programmes to address poverty regardless of race or ethnicity". I see this as far more useful than automatic assistance to ethnic minorities. Given that there are disproportionately poor minorities, poverty based assistance would still provide substantial racial disparity in public benefits, without assisting people who have limited need of our public aid. The "sin of slavery" is an important historical reference point, but it should be possible to redress it by alleviating poverty and opportunity inequalities in occupation and education for all people.

Environmental issues


Is Global warming a threat to the environment? Yes. But I'm not sure what government plans would do much to help with it. The US already is among the largest reducers of CO2 reduction in the developed world for example by way of reducing CO2 intensity in our economy. Without much in the way of direct intervention and in spite of still substantial government largess for fossil fuel production (coal and oil) and use (highway subsidies rather than congestion pricing). There are existing government policies that should be abolished that may be exacerbating the problem as a result rather than a pressing need for additional government policy. A carbon tax or congestion pricing or gasoline tax would be probably sufficient if more action is necessary after those actions are taken (in exchange for reductions in other taxes at the federal or local level). A greater emphasis on densification rather than current policy favoring suburban settlement would also help (ideally we would do little to encourage either. Better schools and lawns provide incentives to live in the burbs, while access to culture, "public" transit, and other creative class benefits should provide incentives to live in cities).

Should we expand our offshore drilling? Generally speaking we should stop promoting it with additional support in the form of subsidies but other than basic regulation of environmental damage, I'm not sure we should be preventing it either. Without government support, it's possible these would still be economically useful to energy companies, but I'm not concerned if that were to be the case or not. The government should neither support nor oppose much offshore drilling.

Economic issues


Should the government raise the federal minimum wage? No, the federal government should abolish federal min wage standards altogether. These have the effect of depressing low skilled employment. Competition among such jobs would ensure that wages would not be "too low". What would be of greater importance is a general welfare reform that takes on the format of a universal basic income or negative income tax, such that people would receive transfer payments in cash rather than most in-kind forms of assistance for housing, food, and to some extent health care, etc. This would remove some of the inefficiencies in the design of these programmes such that they would not "phase out" when people cross income thresholds and allow people to earn additional income without fear of losing essential public benefits. 

Should Congress raise the debt ceiling? Yes. My preference is for Congress to reign in spending of all kinds and conduct an extensive tax reform. Since it won't do those things, I would prefer we not default on debts. Any ideas that we can cut spending without touching defence, and entitlements are absurd as is most "balanced budget amendment" talk. This is pandering rather than solutions. That money is already effectively spent and accounts for the overwhelming percentage of our expenses.

Should the US have bailed out the major banks during the financial crisis of 2008? Not as such. What should have been done was a NGDP target, or at least an inflation target that the Fed actually tried to hit, combined with a negative interest rate on reserves. This might have meant that some big banks would fail, or be broken up, but it would have discouraged hording of money by large institutions of all kinds (regular corporations for instance) at a time when the economy required liquidity and a higher velocity of money. Simply giving money to businesses that made very poor decisions does acknowledge some amount of government complicity in those decisions (eg, that they were encouraged to make them), but it doesn't do much to resolve the underlying problem that they were in fact poorly run institutions that made stupid decisions.

Do you agree with President Obama's 2009 stimulus plan? They probably should have provided more specifics here, but in general the answer was no. Things like unemployment compensation to some reasonable extent are uncontroversial in my view. And the sort of ad hoc manner that states would balance budgets by slashing payrolls in police or teaching would not be carried out in the most effective manner (by firing and retiring ineffective or abusive members of those institutions for example; partly because the methods of dismissing public employees are already fraught with legal complexity). But infrastructure spending is by now fraught with all manner of complicating and competing regulation fights that make it inefficient stimulus and to boot wasn't in most cases all that well designed to get projects of necessity off the ground. An ideal infrastructure stimulus programme involving infrastructure could have been to improve and maintain the already existing infrastructure rather than to supply incentives to produce more.  Of an often dubious utility. This would have had the advantages of more immediately providing work to people in a heavily displaced economic sector and providing some benefits in a more functional road network, efficient electrical grid, or updated water or sewer lines, some of which date to the 19th century, and so on without the need for boondoggle projects in high speed rail or subsidized clean energy.

Should the federal government subsidize farmers?
Nope. Next question.

Should we keep or dismantle our Social Security programme? I think this can function as a mandatory retirement savings system if reformed. It is less economically insane than medicare for example that old people should draw an income in their retirement than that we should then also provide medical care for all such people. I am however very skeptical that it should be monopolized and run by the government to the exclusion of other options (in the same way that I do not think a monopoly on schools is satisfying to the public externality of providing a quality education). Some variety of asset distribution or private control would be preferred here. Arguments like "look what happened to the stock market" do not concern me much here. In general that bashed the public's retirement assets because people who are retired shouldn't have very much money left in stock anyway and the problem was financial illiteracy and complexity of financial instruments. That is a separate if related issue but one which isn't as easily resolved as the relative freedom to do with money as we see fit money which is designated to be our own at a later date. Note: that could include investment in public bonds or allowing the government to manage the money in exchange for a possibly lower return on investment.

Do you believe the Bush tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 should be extended? They should really also be called the Bush tax cuts of 2010 and, probably 2012. But okay. The answer is I don't care about the Bush tax cuts one way or the other. My real concern with the tax code is that it should be simplified and greatly reformed. A general tax structure in my ideal world would include any or all of the following:
A huge reduction or elimination in all federal corporate taxation combined with both
A relative increase in the rate of capital gains and dividend earnings taxation to be closer to that of regular wage income (retaining the same sort of progressivity, and thus ending the private equity trader exclusions of carried interest also and the absurd manner in which middle class stock earnings can be taxed at regular rates while actual investment income is not)
And elimination of most forms of corporate welfare

An overall shift toward consumption taxation, possibly with a graduated effect from earnings potential (again, including capital gains type earnings) and income excluded from taxation for basic needs. This might include a VAT, carbon or gasoline taxes, other excise taxation (alcohol, narcotics, expensive first dollar health care insurance, etc). It could also included a heavily modified (less regressive scale) version of the Fair Tax proposals generally replacing income taxation of any kind.

Abolition of many tax exclusions like home mortgage deductions combined with a roughly flatter and lower overall tax rate on the increased base of money available to be taxed (this is essentially what was done during the Reagan years but not during the Bush years and also during the Kennedy and Coolidge administrations). 

No tax proposal is going to actually abolish the IRS. A bureau will exist to enforce tax laws and collect revenues. It might be smaller, and it might have very different mandates to carry out, perhaps against different sectors of the economy than the manner of taxing income. But the tax men are still going to exist. Sorry to disappoint.

Social issues.

Should abortion be outlawed in the US? No. I am persuaded that varieties of birth control access (making it OTC for example would help in addition to subsidies or cash transfers for the poor), more comprehensive sex ed, streamlined adoption methods, and other social services could actually help achieve the purported goal of reducing the likelihood and frequency of abortions. Bans would also reduce these but at the cost of increasing risks to women's health through illegal markets for provision of abortion and decreased ability to carry out medically necessary abortive procedures for the preservation of a woman's life as well as carrying enforcement costs, probably through invasive and insensitive police tactics made necessary to insure things like miscarriages are not actually abortions, etc. If the goal is actually to reduce abortions, there are better ways than by imposing enormous limitations on the liberty of women to conduct their health and sexuality (with no such restrictions imposed upon men), both for personal liberty and economic reasons I oppose bans even before entering into other moral arguments. There I favour allowing people to make complicated moral decisions themselves without fear of penalty so long as the harms committed to other human beings are limited. I am further persuaded that there is little moral certainty or clarity  that fetal and embryonic development is a "person" endowed with unalienable rights and much scientific evidence to suggest otherwise through the persistence of pregnancy difficulties in other formats, like miscarriages and failures to implant fertilized embryos in the uterine walls, to suggest that nearly any time frame of "person" prior to birth is inherently arbitrary. Positions of viability are possibly instructive as providing points of limitation and restrictive access, but not total bans.

Should gay marriage be allowed in the US?  Yes. Federal policy should be amended to provide federal legal benefits in accordance with state laws and licensing at the very least. It is also possible that federal policy should need to be amended under equal protection clauses in the 14th amendment such that ALL states would need to legalise such arrangements but I am content that demographic change on this issue will suffice to provide it in the near future to enough US residents and citizens as to make it universally approved.

Should the government require health insurance companies to provide free birth control? In general I oppose the government mandating what insurers must provide. I think the government's role here would be to provide sound scientific or transparent evidence that provision of particular methods, medications, etc is medically sound and reasonably cost effective such that insurers ought to do this. But I don't see why, say, a woman in her 50s should be receiving an insurance plan that automatically covers birth control (maybe there's some medical reasons, but it wouldn't be what we traditionally associate with the drugs and devices) simply because the government has decided that insurance companies need to provide it. I also disagree with first dollar insurance for health care more broadly anyway and think of things that are usually only modestly expensive and regular expenses (check-ups, birth control, etc) to be things that we ought to simply budget for yearly rather than to expect anyone else to pay for us. It ought to be reasonable socially or culturally to expect men and women to share the costs of provision while in a regular sexual relationship also. As an additional step, birth control of many varieties could be made OTC, which would render it cheaper and more accessible to millions of women, men, and their families or significant or occasional others by eliminating a largely extraneous step of seeing a doctor to obtain it. Women with specific and significant health risks could be filtered out by pharmacists issuing the drugs, prior consultations with doctors,etc (and the primary risks of note are "do you smoke?") without imposing costs on the vast majority of the population.

Where this became an issue politically was not mentioned in the question. The problem is that many Americans receive their insurance through their employers and employers then get to exercise their own moralising impulses upon their employees types of plans. I do not see a basis for preventing people from opting out of mandates of this kind (as opposed to more general mandates for health care provision of any kind), nor for preventing them from accessing types of care and coverage that they find perfectly acceptable when they work with or for people who do not feel likewise. The problem is more the employer provision in my view here and less the mandates.

25 June 2012

Pegged it

So there have been a variety of political psychology works coming out over the last few years. Generally speaking, people of different political persuasions have different brains. The more amusing one was Haidt's work had to put in an entire moral dimension in order to figure out what the hell libertarians were doing (they/we didn't appear to use any of the standards they'd chosen). Along those lines, there's this test here. 
And its accompanying write-up.

What's worth examining, and I suppose explaining, is why libertarians don't seem all that fond of "democracy" or "political freedom". What I would say is that if we have a system whereby most of our mores, customs, behaviors, and basic liberties are determined by a political structure, then a level of participatory democracy seems fine and (at least sometimes) preferable to arbitrary decision making where accountability to the public is non-existent. There at least is the opportunity to convince people to let things slide rather than legislate them away, to elect different people to make different decisions, etc. Where I differ is that I don't think most things ought to be or even need to be limited, controlled, confined, or restricted by popular mandates as in a "politically free" environment or to be subject to elected representatives and appointed bureaucrats' decision making. That is, that most things are more free and more ably determined without using the institutions of governance to rule on them. I don't particularly think people should frequent prostitutes, consume most illegal or mind-altering substances, educate their children with creationist nonsense, and so on. But I'm not at all convinced that this desire is best satisfied by compelling other people to share these preferences through force of law. Hence I don't find it convincing to have political freedoms to exercise this as a power if it is a power I don't want to have in the first place.

As a further problem, I find that most people get to exercise their preferences on all manner of items but only have self-interested concerns that intersect on a handful, if any. This means on most ballot lists, people won't be very well informed as to what will satisfy their interests, or those of the community as a whole. This problem is amplified where many issues are concerned with more complex items (economic policy, trade, foreign policy, etc). Where very few people are at all educated to any level of expertise, and those that are have often vastly divergent views from the general population. For example support for trade or immigration barriers or minimum wage laws or various corporate subsidies is very low among economists because none of these is a particularly effective way of advancing human prosperity, or in some cases is actively harmful, and over 50% in all cases for the general public thinks they're great ideas. Exercising this kind of political freedom is not particularly beneficial to a society.

I would look upon this part as the general concern with the idea that somehow people not voting is a problem worthy of attention itself. Usually through requiring or calling upon people to turn out to vote rather than exhorting them to learn about the issues or reducing the scope of legal actions available to simplify their options and increase the likelihood of an informed electorate and resulting self-interested voter responses. Given the prominence also of obscure methods of changing national policies influence over state and local matters (eg, that most people think in terms of Presidents rather than mayors or governors), the problem of voter ignorance is magnified rather than reduced and I'm not encouraged by continued public concern with voter turnout.

12 June 2012

Bits and pieces

1) Progressives/liberal types seem to be really up in arms still about Citizens United and want to tie it into every election consideration involving monetary disparities. Unfortunately this rests upon what appears to be a false legal argument. That is: that we should be concerned about this decision and its result on Koch-type individual donors spending large amounts of money in elections, as though this is synonymous with corporate spending and lobbying. There are two major problems. Problem one is that Koch-type individual donors could always spend large amounts of money in elections and that the only real difference appears to be that they are doing so now in larger more public ways and that they can align their funds in semi-anonymous ways along with corporate influence (of all stripes). Problem two is that corporate lobbying wasn't impacted by Citizens United. That is/was always a non-electioneering strategy that is not impacted by what sort and volume of advertising is presented during election seasons.

A related third problem is the idea that somehow corporate bodies are a unified force pushing for the exact same policy changes and that they cannot at all deviate from each other on their expressed political views through lobbying and election (or regular) advertising. Given things like SOPA, I'm a little dubious of this claim, as it was exactly the influence of competing corporate bodies (tech companies on one side and media companies on the other) that gave a considerable voice to defeating such legislation. There's also still left unsaid the increased electioneering influence of unions (the probable reason for the Walker recall vote in the first place), and of non-profit advocacy groups that usually take the form of a corporation. It is possible that these agents will not have as much money as substantial donors or politically active multinational corporations. But the idea that substantial donors are themselves a unified pro-business/pro-GOP front is also highly dubious (see Obama fundraising).

Essentially this is a non-starting issue for me unless they want to increase the transparency involved such that obvious slanderous or libel messages funded by a corporate body (or union or whoever) can be punished in the market through use of boycotts or annoyed consumers and if it turns out to be some cranky rich person every once in a while throwing money at it, perhaps a lawsuit? I'm a big fan of transparency in messaging and the detection of attempts at obvious frauds. Since it appears the concern is somehow that there's all this money involved and that's the real problem, or that corporations have legal rights and protections as "people" owing to Constitutional limitations on government power, I'm not on board with these complaints.

(Note: none of this was to say that I am or was on board with the entire Walker agenda or related agendas in other states, eg Indiana/Ohio. I think he did not go far enough by excluding certain unions from his plans and including others, and that some of his plans were excessively broad. I would have been fine with just eliminating the government from automatic paycheck deductions from public employees to union dues and then changes to the overall contracts such that other potentially useful reforms could be attempted. I also don't think that the Obama response of saying that somehow that lots of teachers and cops and firefighters being laid off as a result of these reforms or policy agendas is automatically a problem that we need to be publicly concerned with as voters. Lots of such people probably do need to be fired, either because of incompetence, because of a change in demand structure, ie, fewer people living in a city or state, or because of a change in the available tax base removing funding for said agencies.)

2) Syria appears to be getting hotter again and we are again treated to various ideological calls for intervention. Either on a purely strategic grounds that we could be able to unseat or otherwise weaken an Iranian/Russian regional ally or on the humanitarian grounds that people are being slaughtered and that this must cease. On both calls, I am extremely curious to know by what mechanics we are treated to a successful intervention. As with Libya, or for that matter Iran in 2009, we don't have very firm grasp of either the levels of popular support for revolution or the dynamics under which that revolution will exercise power post-revolt and how they might differ substantively from the current status quo (Iran in particular I saw very few such elements in the stated goals of opposition figures versus the student/educated demonstrators who apparently wanted more substantial change but were not well supported by the broader Iranian public in these goals). The general proscription that people fighting a tyrant for their own ends will share a demand to expand liberties for others is usually false. Libya has seen a lot of power squabbles, with some spillover effects in to Mali to consider as effects of our actions. Even Egypt, where no direct foreign interventions took place, has seen a good deal of confusion and squabbling over the format of the successful rebellions. It is unlikely that Syria would go anywhere near as smoothly as Egypt were any rebellion to succeed, particularly were it to have foreign military assistance.

Perhaps that is sufficient for a short-term strategic goal of destabilizing a regional player with some enmity for American goals and interests (or those of our allies, mostly Israel). But I doubt it would actually serve those goals in any meaningful way. Syria's primary utility as an "enemy" is to funnel guerrilla tactics into the West Bank or Lebanon. I don't see how those goals are ceased by destroying the Syrian state and replacing it with an uncertain form of governance (or as in the cases of Afghanistan, portions of Pakistan, Yemen, or Somalia, no effective governance at all).

Further, I'm not aware of many scenarios where military interventions, particularly those with regime changes as a probable outcome, successfully culled violence against civilians. It is argued that somehow an intervention force would allow for peaceful transitions or negotiations. This however, as we see in the example of Libya, is false, nor is any meaningful negotiation a condition of either sides' demands. The application of advanced warfare to intercede is not a means to negotiate, it is an injection of foreign power into what amounts to a civil war or at best some sort of internal rebellion. What that amounts to in effects is an unstable state where violence can actually increase or escalate or at least continue. It just no longer takes the form of tanks and artillery and airplanes, the weapons of statecraft and continues with executions, arrests, and various guerrilla tactics by either side. Examples here include Kosovo, Bosnia, or Somalia.

Were Syria a client state of Western powers, in the like of Rwanda, we might be able to see some successful diplomatic pressures (rather than full interventions), but since it is a client state of Iran or Russia, this is not likely either. This leaves an unsatisfying situation existing. I agree fully it is deeply troubling that a government halfway around the world sees fit to slaughter its own citizens for most any reason. I'm just not convinced there are techniques and strategies available to reliably stop them from doing so or at least that these techniques do not carry the risk of replacing one form of slaughter for others, and one form of enemy state for another, and so on.

11 June 2012

Quick thoughts on D3

I've played enough now to know what I like and what I don't here. So a good, bad, ugly routine suffices
1) Good.

It runs very smoothly even with a below spec cpu and looks quite good. The environment is much more interactive and 3D tactics are useful. Items also offer more visual changes. On weapons especially this can be quite informative (blood dripping means life steal, fire means added fire damage, and so on).

I like the emphasis on co-op games and the ability to jump in and help out at will. With friends who are actually playing the game, this is very good. With random people who are doing different things, it is less so (as it just makes everything harder to kill). The banner teleport system from town is especially useful. No shared loot is also useful, as it then presumes a reaction of "what did you get?" from a powerful enemy or a series of quests. Smaller games is nice, though I rarely joined D2 on battlenet and mostly played in network/VPN type games instead, especially once they introduced a single player method of increasing the player count (which didn't make nightmare or normal any harder with well-equipped players, but did buff the experience you received for what were usually cakewalks).

The skill/rune system is decent. In general with any build in D2, it was more or less two or three skills being used constantly anyway. Here you can use up to 6 at any one time and if you really need some specialised killing, you can swap out reasonably fast (depending on the difficulty) to use something powerful rather than randomly available points that were often dumped into a spell in D2 that just offer some (slow) killing ability of some special enemy rarely encountered. Its also fairly customisable to use a lot of offensive/defensive skills (once you dump the game's default line). I suspect this and random item use is necessary for replay ability.

The quest/checkpoint structure is nice. The maps also are a little more predictable (it seems like) for finding your way to the next linear point. This was among the more annoying D2 aspects of having to find waypoints or finish a quest before ending a game. That you can backtrack in a quest through the menu is also nice. Overall this retains D2's routine of jumping in for 15 minutes or so and jumping back out into doing other things in life, or burning an hour or so here or there with observable progress being made. 

Fewer Pindle type runs are out there. No Iron Maiden instant deaths also a plus. (Inferno is however pretty instant if you're ill-equipped).

No keys are required for any of the chests and some (good) chests will trigger ambushes.

It's far easier to craft useful weapons or armor than the random rolls from the cube or various item quest rewards in D2, while still retaining the random roll factor. Higher level gems I assume is a compromise for no longer having socketable runes.

The stash is shared across all characters, making it easier to transfer items to other characters. And it is also larger.

The combat mechanics overall seems a lot better and makes things like high armor or dodge chances or blocking more useful to pay attention to than in D2 (where dodge was a Zon skill and only Paladins used enough melee combat with shields to actually be blocking anything consistently and only Pikers, Barbs and Paladins bothered with very high armor. For everyone else, there was running away or teleporting). 

Things that aren't so good
It seems like only the first (normal) kill of anything drops rares/uniques/etc. This should be changed so that on nightmare/hell/inferno you still get the credit the first time for a first kill and can get a decent drop. You do get a lot of experience and some gold, but this is not very rewarding and satisfying when you expend a couple minutes trying to kill the Skeleton King or Azmodan and get a couple of random magical items that probably aren't very good.

Legendary (unique) items aren't much better or unique than the random items available. They should offer more unique advantages or be buffed some relative to their rarity and status. Given the auction house item setup being used, I'm guessing this is why these aren't uber-powerful like in D2 (where entire character builds sometimes were based around X item), but they do need some help because they're usually just status symbols that sometimes look cool rather than things you actually use in game. To the extent that this makes rare or magical items more useful, I'm fine with that, but these uniques should at least retain useful status of their own accord.

Boss/champion/elite packs are routinely more difficult than any of the main quest bosses; which mostly are difficult because they take a while to kill and have some unique attacks. The packs however can be extremely painful on higher difficulties and offer a lot of killing combination options for any chance at hardcore.

Fewer chokepoints are available. For instance shutting and opening doors or tanking in a doorway used to be a viable strategy against powerful hordes. There are some skills that make up for this (disintegrate is really fun against a narrow path), but there's less of a tactical feel at times and more of just button mashing.

Mercs are more durable and free to use, but deal much less damage and are locked out of cooperative games.

Ugly
Stat points are automatically distributed. All of them now offer greater potential benefits for any character (for example, dexterity was almost useless for casters in D2, as was strength beyond what was necessary for a piece of armor or shield), and this is fine. Such that it offers a lot less potential customisation for things like armor or weapon selection versus defensive use of attributes (like a ton of hit points or dodge), it is less so. It is probable that the auto distribute is about where you might end up, but you can't create an imbalance for strategic design purposes with your actual character and have to use items to achieve this effect. 

There's often no particular reason to use a wand over a sword as a caster type, or fist/claw weapons as a monk versus axes or maces. Most skills are based off of the weapon damage (with a few exceptions like arrow skills for the demon hunter which require a bow or crossbow), which means you may as well take the better damage sword than a wand or dagger, etc. This is like playing a spreadsheet character rather than the role playing aspect. To be fair, class-specific type weapons do offer particular advantages at times, like extra resources or resource regeneration. But these are only trivial concerns at most points versus being able to deal out an extra set of damage. There are also limitations on what you can or cannot use (eg, monks can't use bows). I suppose I can live with those but they are a little against the cause of being able to customise freely.

I'm not entirely sure what the 10 characters limit is for other than that all characters are stored on their servers rather than being singleplayer modes at home use and they don't have unlimited server space. Given that there's less customisation, 10 seems almost excessive.

I'm not sure what purpose gold serves in the game other than to buy items on the auction house. Repairing items is relatively cheap compared to D2, mercs are free (and don't die as quite as easily when soloing, plus are more customised), most items available for sale are mediocre or below your level when you probably want items which are at or above level, and crafting items or gems is mostly expensive in terms of generating resources for it rather than prices. On the plus side, gold is shared across characters so now new low level characters can quickly equip and the game does not provide ready supplies of more money in the form of selling regular or magical items for 30k a pop such that you are drowning in cash.

Prometheus

Gets a meh.

It was watchable, and I enjoyed the android and his Lawrence of Arabia fetish. It was however far more predictable and illogical than Alien/s, where many actions are logical and still work out with horrifying consequence. Here actions are without logic and unsurprisingly work out rather badly. Which is the standard horror film plot for the last 50-60 years (and one of the reasons the Aliens franchise started out so well).

It was not, strictly speaking, very good at aligning itself with the Aliens lineage that it purported to relate to. Other than some plot points that are rather sloppily executed within the confines of the movie itself or dropped in as asides for those who are more than vaguely familiar with Alien/s movies. As spoilers, the Aliens themselves were apparently created as a weapon of mass destruction by the same aliens that apparently made us (and promptly were dangerous to them as well). And we can all go on with our lives with the accident wreckage safely behind us.

I did enjoy having Stringer Bell around on this little voyage. And I presume the moral of the story was either a) don't bring an idiot biologist along who will try to play with hideous snakes and immediately get killed or b) don't go on any expedition anywhere with rich people and their families, who will busy themselves trying to kill everyone for their sporting pleasures or c) don't go on any expedition about the supposed origins of mankind led by someone who "believes" it involves aliens but offers no proof of said hypothesis. I get a little tired of the repeated science fiction notions that somehow a bunch of upright apes couldn't have learned how to talk and farm and construct symbolic languages on their own in a nauseating way of replacing god as the simple but wrong answer to such questions.

But than Stringer and his musical tastes, I would not advise people to go see it out of some special loyalty to Ridley Scott and his vision. He's been on a down swing for a while now. American Gangster might be his only good-decent film since Black Hawk Down/Gladiator, both of which were over a decade ago. And then you're only looking at Blade Runner and Alien prior to that as resume feed, both classics I admit, but still.

29 May 2012

Patriotism apparently means having to say you are sorry.

Honestly, I am having a hard time understanding precisely what the actual offense was here that requires a defense in the first place.

Perhaps this is because I find that ordering soldiers off to do things that are, by definition, hazardous and sometimes disagreeable, is not something that entitles us to do so with an incautious sensibility.

Naturally I find myself more aligned with liberal sentiments than conservative ones, so perhaps the outrage is something tribal that is more conservative and traditional; a noble sympathy with the common soldier and his commanders as they do battle to honor god and country. To that extent, I'm inclined to grant that such sympathies are not without their merit and deserve a level of attentive respect. I'm not sure that Hayes didn't grant that either though which is the confusing part where I don't understand outrage. Was that respect in some way expressed at an insufficient level? I don't get it. 

The real complications I suppose are the bigger questions that will no doubt go unasked and unanswered. A few are hinted at directly at the bottom of Conor's post.

First, he in effect asks if heroism flows from their sacrifice of individuality and control, especially in the modern context through the requirement of volunteering to serve versus compulsory draftees. I'm not sure that this action is automatically "heroic", but as noted on the show, it certainly embodies some noble traits useful to most societies (that some people will give up private goods for all/others to enjoy common benefits). Perhaps we could identify this as a form of heroism, in the same way that we might identify various forms of non-combatants who might do such work (teachers or various political activists, etc). But I think the key word here is a form of sacrifice and effort on behalf of others, be that your country, the country one is fighting in, or a set of students, or whatever. We identify, somewhat appropriately, a sacrifice of self as heroic, with its ultimate case being a sacrifice of life itself so that others may live and lesser cases being self-defensive cases of death where others die by our hand or an appointed hand acting on our behalf so that they will cause no harms to ourselves and others. This too is a difficult scenario to envision oneself doing actively and agreeably and which we might naturally ascribe a certain degree of heroism.

This question naturally implies that the sacrifices are not all those of life and death, that the basic freedoms being surrendered for some cause or military unit's ultimate victory in a mission or war are all worthy of merit. Or conversely, that not all deaths in war are heroic sacrifices in and of themselves. Perhaps it is this hint that is offensive. I think it would be difficult for people to go to wars if they did not convince themselves that the deaths of others, friends and enemies alike, were in some way serving a purpose. Otherwise the slaughter would appear needless and wasteful. But I also think that the general opposition to these wars or recognition of futile causes occurs far more readily by those soldiers themselves, and even to their commanders at times than to the politics that require such actions. Opposition to the continuing operations and occupation in Afghanistan is higher among troops who have served there or are still serving than among the general public, which is higher still than among political figures who have control over said operations and occupations. What this should tell us is that soldiers themselves probably don't feel very heroic.

I suppose what it comes down to is this:
American soldiers are always declared brave and honorable. Our enemies are not, and at times our allies are not. There can be no nuance to this statement or the statement is now declared unpatriotic. This is... well it's fucked up. It's nationalism. It's not patriotism. Patriotism means sometimes the thing you love has flaws and it needs to be woken up to it.

But apparently saying so means you have to apologize.

10 May 2012

Evolving views, ctd

I have also seen a great deal of fury at North Carolina for passing a foolish law. I have several thoughts on this too.
1) Most states have such bans in one form or another. Very few states have legal recognition of basic human rights irrespective of sexual orientation. That North Carolina did not have a formal ban could be characterised as an aberration. It's one of the stronger holdouts against such rights based on demographics and polling data and essentially just hadn't gotten around to it. (by contrast, Maine is one of the strongest states in support that hasn't done so, and Iowa is a clear outlier thanks to a few judges). In my mind this means that other than a bunch of states in the NE US, few people have a leg to stand on here to see these NC voters worthy of extra derision and scorn. Pot meet kettle.

2) Most voters do not fully understand what they are voting on in elections, especially local elections. First, North Carolina already did not recognize same sex unions under their civil unions/domestic partnerships, so the legal change was unnecessary for the reason supposed that it was. Second, there's some evidence that over half of the population in NC favored providing civil unions to LGBT residents and affording them with equal protections, just that they didn't want to call that "marriage" I suppose. I think this is the wishy-washy position of most Americans that results from having very few attentive thoughts to the actual issue. Indeed at this point I'm far more comfortable logically and rhetorically with people who say that they shouldn't have those rights at all. At least they're being consistent by acknowledging their bigotry and intolerance rather than suppressing it into a socially approved but mostly useless gesture.

3) I would guess the timing of the vote coming as it did near a conservative party primary did not help the voter turnout, but I doubt this affected the outcome, just the margin. Evidence suggests also that people/voters who support do SSM, or even just same sex rights, are not as likely to be highly motivated to turn out to vote on the issue either. Given that there are not that many homosexuals, who might have a direct interest in the outcome, I don't think this is that surprising. There are plenty more religious and highly motivated people who always vote. Especially outside of the NE US.

4) To me the closest parallels to these sorts of votes is watching them in relation to Prohibition. Interracial marriage may be the closest in the actual rights and practices afforded to people that were previously being denied, but that cause advanced in a much more roundabout way. With several states abolishing bans very early on in post-colonial history (Pennsylvania for instance) or having no laws in the first place (New York or Wisconsin), and a few more in the civil war/Reconstruction era and/or some shortly after statehood (Kansas, New Mexico). The issue was routinely a strong campaign attack ad during the antebellum era and the Civil War elections, and was involved indirectly for Prohibition's political support within the South especially. That left a bunch of holdouts that took decades more to resolve (beginning after WW2/Korea most of the American West abolished their bans), including all of the ex-confederate/ex-slave states that didn't abolish their bans until a Supreme Court case nullified them. That's a very different path to equality to what we are seeing now. Here's what I think is happening instead.

a) There's a very strong growth toward permissiveness or tolerance of homosexuality and homosexuals. This has happened very fast, over the last 15-20 years. Keep in mind that Clinton signed off on DoMA not that long ago. Keep in mind also that overturning state laws regarding bans on sodomy was even more recent.
b) There's a very strong reaction to that growth on the part of people who oppose either. Prohibition in both directions (support or opposition) emerged as a very strong national issue very suddenly, after a several decade period of running beneath the surface or emerging in a few local or state considerations.
c) The portion of people who oppose either is still demographically significant enough to do something now or very recently but will not be, in most cases, within about 10 years. Prohibition was enabled by a similar window of opportunity that was rapidly closing from immigration and urbanisation/industrialisation. Indeed, in that case the dry political class held off redistricting alignments for almost a decade in a blatantly unconstitutional action. Mostly so they could impose and enforce their views through control of districts that were more rural and populated by the more "traditional" American citizenry than huge influxes of Eastern Europeans and Irish/Germans but which were no longer representative of the actual population in most states.
d) There's a very strong set of battles over "side" issues like education, through curriculum and textbook wars. Prohibition was fueled in part by a lot of unrealistic fear-mongering over the supposed dangers of alcohol consumption being in the only approved texts to be used for many schools. Similar fights concern the supposed dangers or the parameters of homosexuality (as opposed to real dangers, such as rates of STD transmission that required a strong educational campaign from within the LGBT community to bring in line, or persistent and meaningless fights over "it's a choice" versus "biological causes". There are likely significant biological causes for people to become murders or psychopaths. If "we" think something is wrong and harmful, this is not an excuse permitting behaviors that are wrong and harmful. But it is then incumbent on "us" to show clearly that it is wrong or harmful in some way. In this case, advocates against gay marriage equality have failed to do so). There are also other sub-battles concerning adoption policies and the like (very similar to Prohibition's eventual involvement in immigration constraints).
e) Both fights were dominated and fomented by religious zealots. Interracial marriage as an issue was fomented by racist segregationists, with religion playing a side role in most cases. I suppose one could put more blame upon women for starting the temperance movements and especially for the textbook garbage, but in truth, it was when men too took up the cause that it started to go somewhere (though partly because women couldn't vote for a lot of that time), and it was when women took up the cause of repeal that it started going somewhere too (partly because women could vote at that time). Generally perspectives on alcohol use and homosexuality do or did not have a strong gender imbalance. They do however have a strong religious function. When this guy shows up as a temperance leader, it's hard to see a strong secular basis being applied to the law.
f) Finally, unlike on interracial marriage, Ohio is not fairing so well on either of these causes. It's essentially the median US state for being against recognizing gay marriage right now, including already having a constitutional ban, and it was the hotbed flash point for the cause of Prohibition. It did reasonably well as it was among the last states during the Reconstruction era to abolish interracial marriage bans, which put it, if not the vanguard, at least ahead of the curve politically and morally. This is not an important data point to the overall argument, but I think it shows that there's some different factors at work causing the problem than those involved in more directly related rights like marrying someone who has a different ethnicity.

Evolving views

I'm a little confused how a view which essentially returned to its initial point of origin can be described as "evolving". Maybe the public version of that view has evolved, but given that even the public view was this back in 1996, I'm guessing the only thing that changed was the height and relative importance of offices involved. In any case, we're back to adjudicating culture war talking points.

I don't see that this one in particular really harms or hurts Obama election wise. It's likely that it was harming him to hold out a middling view at this point; given a) that most Democrats/liberals overwhelmingly support gay marriage b) most Republicans don't, c) there's been a rapid shift in the last 5 years among minorities toward support, and d) those minorities were probably voting "Democratic" anyway. So I don't think talking over the election really matters here. Mitt Romney isn't Rick Santorum and isn't likely to turn this change in a public stance into a fire-breathing sermon over morality that overshadows other more pressing issues (or issues perceived as more pressing). This will more likely be just something that they will show a clear contrast on, rather than campaign centerpiece perspectives requiring intense debate.

What is of note is that Obama basically took the following perspectives
1) Continued to oppose state laws banning equal recognition, like the one passed in North Carolina, particularly in the form of amendments to state constitutions.
2) Continued to state that it was okay for states to make these determinations themselves.

I'm not entirely sure how those views square with each other. If these are badly crafted laws which violate respect for equal rights and recognition for some citizens unnecessarily (eg, these are not felons who have assaulted people or property), then I don't see why it is appropriate to permit governments at any level to pursue discriminatory policies. Even if these are more precisely crafted laws which may enjoy majoritarian support, that does not make them sensible policy. Perhaps that needle is threaded by making the argument that these are sloppy laws, but even the clear cut ones are openly discriminatory.

In fact, I find it a little strange that of all the various issues Obama has nodded some assent toward federalism, this is the one that he picks to actually evince real support for. And it's probably among the weakest for a federalist mentality. Even abortion to me has a stronger case for separate laws. This is far closer to slavery or other forms of discrimination which presently enjoy federal guarantees of protection. While there may be a highly pragmatic basis for this being a steady march toward equality undertaken at the state and local level rather than from federal interventions and court rulings, those court rulings are going to increasingly overturn bans anyway, and this will be a case where there are large intersections of conflicting state laws as people naturally begin to move between jurisdictions in a way that an issue like abortion can more easily resolve. One can simply travel to receive an abortion, an expense or a hassle, but not a denial of rights. One cannot travel to continue to have a legal marriage recognized in residence with its attending rights and benefits. Meanwhile, he seems perfectly comfortable thrashing state laws on narcotics or drug prescriptions, or on immigration, to take various points of perspective here.

I've also taken several thoughts out of debates with people who, at some level, continue to support bans or at least definitions of "traditional marriage".

1) It is not clear to most that the state has already crafted definitions which jar with "traditional" definitions of marriage, and thus created a civil institution distinct from this. Changing the definitions involved in civil and secular institutions does not automatically infer that religious doctrines and practices and rituals should have to change. Eg, that a definition of "traditional marriage" is not at all impacted by changing the state's definition of civil marriage laws. Mostly because the state's definition is not at all close to the premise of a traditional marriage (a corollary here would be that most people's definition of a "traditional marriage", at least in this country, is probably not what a "traditional marriage" would be according to their selected religious or theological doctrine). It's not clear to me how heterosexual couples would feel their pair bonding to be diminished if they no longer enjoyed a particular advantage in the form of state recognition over homosexual pair bonds, so long as their own advantages are not taken away from people who are unattached or are attached in less official capacities. Using examples such as the European experience with legal gay rights recognitions is a highly fraught enterprise that doesn't provide clear causation and in most cases, demonstrates that none of the feared difficulties will materialize as a result. (Example: Europe has long had trends toward lower birthrates and lower rates of marriage, which are among the apparent fears. These were not worsened significantly by adopting gay marriage laws. There are also a lot of cultural or economic causes that could be attributed here in some measure. Such as much higher rates of contraception use and at lower ages, higher ages at marriage, increased use of social welfare programmes, greater tolerance toward premarital or extramarital sexuality, etc).

2) It is not clear to most that the formation of "lesser" institutions, such as civil unions, indicates two further problems a) that they are not automatically endowed with the strongest equal recognition of rights and privileges accorded to civil marriages. Few people are aware of these distinctions in legal protections and advantages afforded to marriage but not to civil unions, even in states with very strong civil unions recognitions like Vermont b) More importantly. That because they are distinct institutions, they are more likely, as in the case of North Carolina, to be subjected to legal pressures and attacks, and perhaps even eliminated as distinct institutions altogether. Creating "separate but equal" institutions does not have a good track record in US history of actually performing the task of formal equality and seems a useless half-measure as a result.

3) It is not clear to most that the provision of state interventions in the form of benefits or privileges accorded to civil marriage recognitions and laws are not going anywhere. There are in fact some grounds on economic reasoning that the state should intervene in some fashions to protect or encourage this institution, though it is far from clear that the hundreds of laws that marriage law impacts are all necessary in and of themselves or that marriages should receive privileged status within them over other private contractual arrangements. In general, what I think to be the case is that people enjoy receiving special recognitions and protections for their private relationship choices, and that some of this recognition or protection may serve some social purposes (externalities) that justifies their continuing to do so. Therefore, marriage as a civil institution isn't going anywhere. I think a strong case can be made to amend some of those protections as useless or unnecessary, or to abolish or reform the laws that require said protections in the first place, but that's a separate issue from disentangling the entire thorny bed of laws surrounding the institution that on each point will receive strong advocacy and defence from the general public at large in order to say "we're not going to use the state to recognize marriages anymore, it will be all private contracts". Private contracts do not deal with things like our tax laws or immigration status or could be used to provide 5th amendment protections to spousal arrangements, etc. Yes you can use a will or insurance in a way you see fit, but you're already able to do this (for example nobody requires that you will an estate or decree an insurance policy to go to a spouse, it just presents some tax advantages to do so at present. Probably because most people probably would do so). 

4) It is clear to most that apparently the title of the state's recognition matters in addition to any actual rights and privileges that are extended. I'm not sure how this helps the argument that a ban should exist, but they're at least aware of this much. What appears to be important to this point is that if the state were to create a distinct secular institution or abolish/reform its present legal frameworks that recognize that institution as "marriage", but instill in it all the present rights and privileges, most people feel that this institution would be diminished. I'm not persuaded that this is the case, as it would be a cosmetic change at best. But since the general public appears to be, I am persuaded that what you call it matters. Since this is the case, we are better off not bothering with distinct institutions that have different names. Both because the actual institution at question already has the aforementioned rights and benefits and I favor avoiding legal complexity as a general rule, and because distinct institutions for unfavored minorities have a poor track record of fulfilling equal status. Further, I'm not sure what the basis is to not recognize equal status of private relationships of this kind. Consenting adults of sound mind should be able to decide for themselves who they will love and cherish in lasting commitments to each other without interference from the state or from the general public deciding that these choices are inappropriate. Their friends and family may be entitled to such input over the course of a relationship, but why the state should receive that privilege seems an error in according powers to the state that it does not require.

08 May 2012

Avengers

Naturally I saw this already.

For what it is worth, I would still put both Nolan-Batman films ahead of it. I think this is roughly where it will end up on imdb/metacritic type scores too (it's ahead of Batman Begins but well behind Dark Knight right now, and will probably be well behind the third one too later in the summer). For my personal taste, I tend to like darker and rougher territories to be covered in my favourite media. Hence, I like the Wire or Game of Thrones as shows as opposed to sitcoms or even other dramas, and I will thus prefer Batman, in its modern form, to Iron Man. That's not to say that there are not some flaws in the Batman films that aren't necessarily in the Avengers, but it's also almost an entirely different genre of film to the typical superhero action setup with very different questions and answers to problems.

While it's been pointed out to me that as a guy I should like movies where things blow up, and I don't deny that I enjoy some such films where there is a good deal of action and explosions, I tend to prefer they be accompanied by other things. Like a good use of humor, a clever plot of some sort, a decent villain or a sensible basis for things to be exploding, coherent fights, and so on. Avengers had most of these features, as did the first Iron Man where many of its prequel portions did not (the first Hulk movie in particular, the second Iron Man, Captain America, and Thor were all weak in some of these regards too). I therefore liked it and would probably go see it again. I had a hard time following some of the fights from where I had to sit given how crowded the theater was. Most of them were quite good at living up to expectation however (Thor v Hulk, Thor v Iron Man, Loki v Cap, Hulk v Loki, both Hawkeye and Black Widow have some serious moves too.) I also appreciated BW getting some roles in the plot rather than just being eye candy as is typical of teen-action flicks and any attractive women being mostly if not completely useless (also a reason I look forward to seeing Catwoman in the next Batman movie). I credit Whedon for that and for the overall banter and humor that was pulled off.

Other notes: I'm not sure if they filmed the whole thing in 3D or just converted it, but my suspicion is on the latter. It was rare that I noticed the 3D features (a couple shots of Iron Man changing directions or fighting things in mid-air is about all). It's probably not worth that much to see it that way. That last Transformers movie was much more obvious where the money spent on 3D went and was thus more visually interesting and impressive. We don't get very much eye candy of an Avatar type. I think this is a good thing as it requires the movie hold up on its own rather than because it looks so damn cool. (Avatar, once I finally saw it, was quite lame, though I could see why some Chinese dissidents liked it at least. While the third Transformers movie was probably the best of the three, that doesn't mean it's a great film, and of course, there's the Star Wars prequels to consider here. All of which were quite bad).